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The Wagner Daily - August 8, 2008
By: Deron Wagner   Friday, August 08, 2008 8:37 AM

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Resistance of last month's "swing highs" in most of the major indices triggered a broad-based round of selling yesterday. After opening lower, stocks attempted to recover throughout the morning session, but the bears resumed control in the afternoon, causing the main stock market indexes to fall below their opening lows. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.0%, the S&P 500 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 lost 1.7% and 1.5% respectively. All the major indices finished near their intraday lows.

Turnover was mixed. Total volume in the NYSE rose 7% above the previous day's level, but volume in the Nasdaq eased 1%. The higher volume selling in the NYSE caused the S&P 500 to register a bearish "distribution day," the second in a week. The Nasdaq narrowly avoided having the same label. Market internals were worse in the NYSE, where declining volume exceeded advancing volume by a margin of 4 to 1. The Nasdaq adv/dec volume ratio was negative by just 2 to 1.

As commodities continue to get hammered, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. Yesterday, the euro fell below a five-month base of support, versus the U.S. dollar. This enabled our long position in the PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index (UUP) to break out and close above its 200-day moving average for the first time in about a year. UUP also broke out above its primary downtrend line, indicating a serious change of long-term bias for the dollar. The UUP breakout above its long-term downtrend line is shown on the weekly chart below:

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Yesterday's sell-off came right as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average tested key resistance of their "swing highs" from July 23. When the major indices approach such obvious and pivotal areas of resistance, it's not uncommon for stocks to "shake out the weak hands" by giving the appearance that the rally attempt is dead. However, the daily charts of the S&P and Dow show that yesterday's sell-off was not damaging on a technical level. In fact, both indexes merely pulled back to support of their intermediate-term uptrend lines. This is shown on the daily charts of the S&P and Dow below:

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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