France and
China are - let’s face it - natural buddies.
France has traditionally looked for a political counterweight to the United
States, and China is beginning to provide one. China wants to keep the European
Union from aligning against it, and France is the EU’s guiding spirit - even if
it’s no longer its largest economy.
France has strengths in some of the high-tech and heavy industry sectors that
China needs. And the European nation also boasts the world’s most-sophisticated
array of the luxury goods that newly wealthy China consumers now crave.
On the other hand, China has cheap consumer goods that don’t compete directly
with French-made products, which means France can allow China to sell them in
the European market with no fear of losing market share. Indeed, France will
even promote the benefits of trade to EU consumers, so long as it sees a good
amount of trade going back the other way.
Clearly, the two countries compete very little, meaning they have many
avenues for cooperation. Still, while Chinese products represent 5.8% of French
imports, China could buy more from France, which represents only 1.4% of Chinese
imports.
All this set up a recent and successful meeting between France President
Nicolas Sarkozy and Chinese officials, after which the newly elected Sarkozy
signed $30 billion in contracts for French companies.
For France, these contracts are huge because they open revenue channels that
are away from the EU - which is trying to keep from being capsized by the waves
of the U.S. credit crisis - and that are actually inside the fastest-growing
economy in the world.
For investors, those contracts also opened three interesting investment
opportunities. Here’s a breakdown of each:
First, there’s Areva, the world’s largest builder of nuclear power plant
reactors, which now is building two new reactors in conjunction with China
Guangdong Nuclear Power Group. The contract, which totals $12 billion, also
includes a 10-year agreement to buy uranium from UraMin Inc.,
a uranium producer owned by Areva. Regrettably, you can’t buy Areva directly
because it’s owned entirely by the French government. However, don’t despair:
The company has issued investment certificates - which have all the rights of
ordinary shares except the right to vote - listed on the NYSE EuroNext (NYX), and
through the Pink Sheets on the U.S. over-the-counter market (ARVCF.PK). As a U.S. retail investor, you probably don’t want to
vote in a French company’s shareholder election anyway, but the company is
pretty expensive at about 41 times trailing earnings.
Sarkozy’s second big deal was the sale of 160 commercial passenger jets (110
A320s and 50 A330s) by Boeing Co. (BA) arch
nemesis Airbus SAS, in a contract totaling $15 billion. When
French charm and a natural geopolitical alliance come together, it doesn’t
matter that the euro is hugely overvalued against the dollar at $1.47. Airbus is
a unit of the Franco-German defense-aerospace giant EADS NV
[again, listed on Pink Sheets as EADSF.PK]. Unfortunately EADS’ P/E ratio is infinite, as the
company is currently operating at a loss. Maybe that one’s not such a hot
investment opportunity.
The third big deal was $1.1 billion of contracts for telecom giant Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) to expand
the mobile networks of China Mobile Ltd. (CHL) and
China Unicom Ltd. (CHU). Alcatel-Lucent is pretty much a blue chip and its China
deals, while smaller than those of Areva and Airbus, give every sign of being
solidly profitable. The company had a rough year in 2007 and its stock is very
cheap at a recent price of $6.44 - its lowest price in nearly five years. How
much the China deals impacts profit and investor sentiment makes it a
speculative play.
