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Bouncing Commodities, Bearish Financials
By: Scott Johnson   Wednesday, August 13, 2008 5:31 PM

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Commodities had a strong bounce today, with USO and UNG (oil and natural gas) seeing fairly heavy volume. SLX, the steel ETF, saw less volume, but rose 4.57%, leading my sector scan. There was high volume buying of XLB, the materials ETF, but I question whether it has much room to run here.



I'm slightly bullish here, but it is a rather confused picture. Most of my positions are on the small side.

I have been accumulating financial puts for a few weeks now, and they've been doing well over the past two days. Near the lows today, I got out of financial shorts and also lightened up on the puts. I still have a good amount of puts in WB, BAC, RKH, WFC, and FITB which I plan to hold through fluctuations. I think there are some very good short-selling opportunities to come, so it is useful to look at the XLF chart:



XLF has broken its uptrend line on increasing volume. I think we've topped. Looking at the prior downtrend, it is very possible we see a rapid descent. I would prefer a low volume bounce into resistance for better short entries. We'll see if that happens tomorrow.

Here are a few charts for long trades. I have small positions in each:

- TECH: Good reaction to earnings along with high volume, and has consilidated the move. Sitting on support.



- TJX: Strong retail chart. TJX was downgraded and saw some selling this morning, held support, then proceeded to make up the ground through the day.




- PWR: Today spent most of the day down and ended flat. Sitting on support and good looking volume pattern.



- OIIM: Bottomfishes like this have been kind to me lately.



- WOLF: Another bottomfish that I am looking to re-enter.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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