Ongoing bad news from financials, oil and commodity price rebounds while
consumer spending weakens put stocks back in their place. Bulls would suggest
this is just part of a bottom building process while bears would suggest we're
just at a resting point before beginning another leg lower. Me? My chief concern
is a trading range environment where meaningful and durable trends don't exist.
Volume wasn't very heavy [let's remember its August] while breadth was
unremarkable. [I'll post early numbers from Yahoo Finance before they screw it
up which seems to happen after 4:30 PM.]
That about covers the world methinks. So I made up for
yesterday's absence. But, it was a beautiful day here in the Andes and a little
stroll to the colonial center was a pleasant break. Besides I wanted to wait for
today's energy inventory data since prices and trends are much on investors
minds.
The beat goes on for financials. This shouldn't surprise. Losses
according to a wide variety of sources are now put at over $500 billion from
mortgage related securities. Further many suggest losses will rise to $1
trillion with economist Noriel Roubini predicting $2 trillion. Those are mind
numbing numbers arent they?
There are continuing rumors of another
major financial firm about to collapse. I have no idea whether this is true.
From a trading and investing perspective I fear a trading range
environment more than any other circumstance. Should that occur the only defense
is heavy cash balances. For most portfolio managers maintaining large cash
balances is an anathema. Not for us.
Tomorrow more inflation data and
dont forget options expiry on Friday. Have a pleasant evening.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short
positions in:
IWM,
QQQQ, QLD,
IGV,
IGN,
IBB,
XLP,
XLV, RXL,
UUP,
GLD,
DZZ,
DBC,
DEE,
USO and
XLE.