Cost Cutting in New York, but a Boom in India
Now that oil is headed back to $60, the countries that import "stuff" i.e. India should do well - as their inflation disappears. Ok,
maybe not so much....
- India's inflation soared to a 16- year high and may accelerate further after the government approved wage increases for civil servants.
- Wholesale prices rose 12.44 percent in the week to Aug. 2, after increasing 12.01 percent in the previous week, the commerce ministry said in New Delhi today. Economists were expecting a 12.2 percent gain. (wow these guys measure inflation on a weekly basis?)
- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's cabinet today approved an average 21 percent salary increase for about 5 million government employees. That may give the central bank little choice other than to raise interest rates again after three increases since June, economists said. (do you see what I mean when I write the global wages are going to eventually be heading to some crossing point among countries as globalization trudges ahead the new few decades?)
- Soaring energy and commodity prices are fanning inflation across Asia. Pakistan's inflation accelerated to a 30-year high of 24.33 percent in July. Consumer prices in Indonesia jumped 11.9 percent last month, the biggest gain in almost two years. (hmm they must of not gotten the memo of how oil prices will soon be cut in half and hence nothing to worry about - that is the US market thesis as they shrug off all inflation reports, pointing to them as "backwards looking")
- Faster inflation is squeezing consumer spending and hurting factory output. India's industrial production grew 5.2 percent in the quarter ended June 30, almost half the 10.3 percent pace in the same period a year earlier.
We've predicted this spate of inflation and "mostly" got out of Asia a few months ago. However we did stick with India a bit too long. But again, if the thesis of global commodity prices staying down is "true" we should be seeing an uptick in the markets of Chindia because those 2 are the ones who need to import "stuff" and hence lower prices would help them. But China has been in the doldrums and India, despite a little minor rally here of late, has been a very bad performer the past quarter. Coal prices on global markets continue to hold firm, and fertilizer prices continue to remain firm. Interesting - to those who use fundamentals. Since it is all about oil - it doesn't matter to the computers.
Anyhow as we become a more flat world - multinational jobs will go where the labor costs are cheaper (although with the wage increases in India the past half decade they better be careful or capital will go find a new country to exploit...
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