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Bottom is in for the Buck
By: Macro Man   Thursday, August 28, 2008 11:06 AM

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Punters who have been around the block more than once or twice know that relying on anecdotal evidence can be fraught with peril. Taking an incomplete dataset and attempting to extrapolate a larger picture is a difficult skill; such forecasts can go badly awry, as the (now discredited) 19th century dinosaur sculptures in London's Crystal Palace attest. The figures to the left were paleontologists' best guess at what an iguanodon looked like in 1850, based on an incomplete fossil record. They look nothing like the modern conception of the beast.

Still, anecdotal evidence is not totally without utility. While the UK press is busy trumpeting that the economy is indeed well and truly buggered, Macro Man could have arrived at the same conclusion on the basis of some of his anecdotal observations. He went out to dinner on Saturday evening at his local French restaurant, which is a nice enough place and, depending on the quality and quantity of the wine consumed, can run anywhere from £40 to £120 per head.

While it's normally not terribly difficult to get a reservation with a few days' notice, the place is usually packed. Saturday night, however, the place was half empty....and most of those diners who were there appeared to be past retirement age. Moreover, the place cleared out unusually early; by 11 pm Macro Man's foursome were the only people left. Now, perhaps the mass exodus is reflective of the noise coming from Macro Man's table; then again, maybe it also reflects a perception that it's cheaper (and therefore better) to enjoy a whiskey at home rather than lingering over one final digestif.

More telling (and more irritating) is the proliferation of caffeine addicts who've taken to paying for their morning cup of Joe at Starbucks with a credit card. In the UK, Starbucks is set up as a primarily cash and carry business. At Macro Man's local 'bucks, it takes literally five minutes for the staff to process a credit card transaction; at they same time, they show a singular inability to process other customers' orders while waiting for the card transaction to go through. It's gotten to the point where Macro Man does an about face out of the store whenever he sees anyone in the queue with a credit card in their hand. Over the past few months, this has become an increasingly frequent occurrence.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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