Three Infrastructure News Stories
These infrastructure stocks continue to be out of favor on an "institutional money rotation away from global growth stories", but in the big picture I continue to believe the story is very interesting. Below is a series of stories entailing some of the opportunities and challenges we've discussed many times in the blog.
First, as we always say - America; the land of not addressing a problem until it's an emergency. And we have an emergency brewing in our infrastructure. The positive is, addressing this emergency can create many good, solid jobs for Americans. (these will be tough to offshore) The negative is we're plain broke and we'll have to call the Chinese or Middle Easterners to help us pay for the coming tsunami of upgrades. Or back to the printing press (strong dollar everyone - strong dollar) Even worse - many of these solutions will relay not on states (who actually seem to get some things done in America) but on that pathetic body called Congress, due to the need to cross state lines. Here we have a story from the
NYTimes about the challenges of wind power vis a vie our national grid. A few ideas to address this angle are (
conservative) (
Aug 10: Quanta Services (PWR) - Looking to Break Out) or
General Cable (BGC) (
series of articles here) or (
speculative)
American Superconductor (AMSC) (
Jun 12: Starting a Beachhead in American Superconductor (AMSC))
- When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind farm spent $320 million to put nearly 200 wind turbines in upstate New York, the idea was to get paid for producing electricity. But at times, regional electric lines have been so congested that Maple Ridge has been forced to shut down even with a brisk wind blowing.
- That is a symptom of a broad national problem. Expansive dreams about renewable energy, like Al Gore’s hope of replacing all fossil fuels in a decade, are bumping up against the reality of a power grid that cannot handle the new demands.
- The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not. The grid today, according to experts, is a system conceived 100 years ago to let utilities prop each other up, reducing blackouts and sharing power in small regions. It resembles a network of streets, avenues and country roads. “We need an interstate transmission superhighway system,” said Suedeen G. Kelly, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
- While the United States today gets barely 1 percent of its electricity from wind turbines, many experts are starting to think that figure could hit 20 percent. Achieving that would require moving large amounts of power over long distances, from the windy, lightly populated plains in the middle of the country to the coasts where many people live. Builders are also contemplating immense solar-power stations in the nation’s deserts that would pose the same transmission problems.
- Wind advocates say that just two of the windiest states, North Dakota and South Dakota, could in principle generate half the nation’s electricity from turbines. But the way the national grid is configured, half the country would have to move to the Dakotas in order to use the power.
- The grid’s limitations are putting a damper on such projects already. Gabriel Alonso, chief development officer of Horizon Wind Energy, the company that operates Maple Ridge, said that in parts of Wyoming, a turbine could make 50 percent more electricity than the identical model built in New York or Texas. The basic problem is that many transmission lines, and the connections between them, are simply too small for the amount of power companies would like to squeeze through them. The difficulty is most acute for long-distance transmission, but shows up at times even over distances of a few hundred miles.
- The power grid is balkanized, with about 200,000 miles of power lines divided among 500 owners. Big transmission upgrades often involve multiple companies, many state governments and numerous permits. Every addition to the grid provokes fights with property owners. (that's a problem)
- In a 2005 energy law, Congress gave the Energy Department the authority to step in to approve transmission if states refused to act. The department designated two areas, one in the Middle Atlantic States and one in the Southwest, as national priorities where it might do so; 14 United States senators then signed a letter saying the department was being too aggressive. ("they" are an even bigger problem)
- Without a clear way of recovering the costs and earning a profit, and with little leadership on the issue from the federal government, no company or organization has offered to fight the political battles necessary to get such a transmission backbone built. (welcome to America - if you don't have a lobbyist to fight your fight, nothing gets done)
- “We still have a third-world grid,” Mr. Richardson said, repeating a comment he has made several times. “With the federal government not investing, not setting good regulatory mechanisms, and basically taking a back seat on everything except drilling and fossil fuels, the grid has not been modernized, especially for wind energy.” (beat and puff out chest: "But we're America - we're the best at everything! Take that as a solution to your "facts"")
Onward - we've talked about the weakness in state budgets, that will only get worse next year.
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