The market for hepatitis B drugs in China is expected to grow 135% by 2012,
according to a new report from Decision Resources. From $340 million in 2007,
sales of hepatitis B treatments will increase to $800 million over the five
years, a CAGR of 18%.
Decision Resources puts the current count of
people in China with chronic hepatitis B at 80 million, though other reports
estimate the total is 50% higher – 120 million. That constitutes almost 10% of
the population. Part of the reason behind the high dollar value of drugs for
this population is that the nucleoside/nucleotide analogue class of drugs often
used to treat the disease must be given long term, often for the rest of a
patient’s life. In most cases, these drugs are effective, suppressing the viral
count, but the disease reappears as soon as treatment is discontinued.
For China’s patients, the choice is often between a more-expensive
Western drug and a domestic treatment that is perceived to be less effective.
According to Dr. Victor Li, an analyst at Decision Resources, the increasing use
of Western remedies is one of the factors driving the market higher. "The shift
to use more expensive Western branded drugs, particularly newer agents such as
Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE:
BMY) Baraclude, Roche's (VX: ROG) Pegasys and
Schering-Plough's (NYSE:
SGP) Pegintron, will contribute significantly to the expansion
of the hepatitis B market in China," he said.
Among domestically
produced drugs, Tianjin Institute of Pharmaceutical Research's Dai Ding
(adefovir) has achieved the highest market share, topping even Hepsera from
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:
GSK).
