Analysis

Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Guler arrived in Kazakhstan on Sept. 3, a day after he and his delegation spent the day in Turkmenistan for energy talks. The usual handshakes and niceties framed the meetings, and no new grand energy deals were announced. But Turkey’s outreach to these Central Asian states comes at a critical geopolitical juncture for Ankara following Russia’s military action in Georgia. And the Iranians, Russians and Americans all have a vested interest in knowing what the Turks’ energy plans are.

Turkey is by no means a big energy producer, but geography has served Turkey well in making it a critical energy transit hub for the West. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that went online in 2006 is key to Turkey’s economic health in the energy sphere. BTC is the first direct pipeline that completely bypasses Russia in delivering crude oil from the Caspian to the Mediterranean. But Turkey got a wake-up call in August when a mysterious pipeline explosion claimed by Kurdish militants, followed by a Russian military campaign in Georgia, completely took the pipeline offline. Moscow got its point across: Europe can sink its money into projects designed to leave Russia in the cold, but the Russians still have the will and capacity to disrupt many of these projects.

The Turks have since been on edge with the Russians, particularly since Moscow has been twisting Ankara’s arm in a trade dispute designed to pressure Turkey into limiting NATO naval access to the Black Sea.