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Indiscriminate Selling in Commodities - Market Analysis
By: Zacks Investment Research   Friday, September 05, 2008 4:00 AM

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I'm surprised by the indiscriminate selling in commodities and commodity-related stocks.

Were there bubbles? Yes, but demand remains high and product shortages continue to exist.

For example, erratic deliveries of steel have caused an acquaintance of mine to put his employees on flexible work schedules. According to him, steel mills are not sticking to regular production schedules of the type of metal used for the packaging products that his company manufactures.

Not surprisingly, his customers are unhappy. But, because they lack a cost-effective alternative, they have no choice but to accept the higher prices and irregular production schedules.

Then there is fertilizer. Employees of fertilizer company Potash (POT) are on strike at a time when there continues to be a shortage of potash - a key ingredient for fertilizer. The company told Standard & Poor's that the strike should only affect non-agricultural customers. That may not sound like a big deal, until one considers that there is no room for supply disruptions across the entire industry.

Still, shares of CF Industries (CF) and other fertilizer stocks are getting knocked around because of the overall weakness in commodity stocks. For demand destruction to occur, one would have to assume that people are going to stop eating, ethanol is no longer going to be subsidized or a replacement for fertilizer has been found. I just don't see this happening.

Another example is natural gas. Natural gas prices have plunged by nearly 50% since early July. Yet, worldwide energy usage is growing. Plus, the Farmer's Almanac is predicting a "numbing" winter.

Perhaps traders think that the NOAA's forecast for above normal temperatures will be the correct one. My best guess is that those of us living in the northern states will be bundling up and complaining about our heating bills.

Of course, it is important to realize that even with the pullback, just about all commodities are still expensive. Here in the Chicago area, gas stations charge around $4 for a gallon of unleaded. Lake County, where I live, is coping with a dramatic increase in the price of road salt. Local officials say that this problem affecting many municipalities across the country.

Given the slowing economies of the Western World, some weakness in the commodity prices is logical, but we are a long way from the perceived demand destruction that seems be influencing some traders.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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