Bearish momentum from the market's September 4 plunge spilled over into the
morning of last Friday's session, but stocks later stabilized and reversed,
enabling the major indices to finish with mixed results. The S&P 500, down
1.5% at its morning low, rallied to finish with a 0.4% gain. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average similarly bounced 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite settled with a
0.1% loss, but the index was actually down 1.9% at its worst level of the day.
The small-cap Russell 2000 was unchanged, as the S&P Midcap 400 advanced
0.4%. After reversing from near-term "oversold" conditions in the morning, each
of the main stock market indexes closed the day near its intraday high.
Nevertheless, all the major indices registered sharp losses for the week.
Total volume in both the NYSE and Nasdaq slipped 4% below the previous day's
levels. Still, trading remained above average levels for a second straight day.
Market internals were very ugly in the beginning of the day, but improved
substantially as the day progressed. By the closing bell, advancing volume in
the NYSE had narrowly exceeded declining volume by a margin of 3 to 2. The
Nasdaq adv/dec volume ratio remained marginally negative.
After nearly a month of choppy, range-bound trading, the broad market
decisively broke lower, below key support levels, on September 4. While this may
have been bad news for traditional "buy and hold" investors, it was good news
for astute short- and intermediate-term traders who focus on profiting from
market trends in either direction. Stocks followed up that major sell-off by
closing flat to marginally higher the following day (last Friday). Going into
today, this sequence of price action initially positioned the main stock market
indexes for a bounce into new resistance of their prior lows from August, which
they fell below last week. But just when the stock market was about to present
us with ideal short-sale opportunities, the Fed curiously announced, over the
weekend, that troubled mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be taken
over by the U.S. government. Upon reacting to this interesting news, the S&P
and Nasdaq futures markets rocketed nearly 3% higher on Sunday evening, and have
been hanging out around those levels overnight. Unless something substantially
changes over the next few hours, all the major indices will open 2% to 3% higher
today.
In last Friday's commentary, we said we would analyze the charts of the main
stock market indexes today, in order to determine the most ideal short entry
points in the coming week. However, as of now, the major indices are already
poised to open well above their resistance levels of the August lows. The
S&P and Dow are even positioned to open above their 20 and 50-day moving
averages. Obviously, the Fed pretty much threw a wrench in our clear plan, and
there was no way to anticipate such action.