The unknown damages from Hurricane Ike will likely cause a spike in gas prices along the Gulf Coast. But once the assessments come in, and refinery production ramps back up, oil and gasoline prices will continue to correct.
Despite the obvious risks, if oil prices continue to fall, I am optimistic about the the stock market will muster up an impressive rally into the end of the year. In the short term, we have a better than average chance that the major market averages will retest the July lows, and it is possible a mini panic could drive the DJIA down to the10,000 level.
After the sell-off, my logic for a rally is a simple one. The cash strapped consumer needs help. Oil prices have acted as a massive tax increase, and slowly that burden was (until the hurricane) being removed. The major factor for higher inflation has been the rising price of energy. If energy prices continue to decline, inflation fears will subside.
Corporate profits have been hurt by rising fuel and commodity costs, and if the current trend toward lower prices continues, profit margins will improve, and so will stock prices.
This October will mark the one year anniversary of the peak in the market which occurred in 2007. Sure the housing market, and financial sector is still in disarray, but that doesn't necessarily mean a strong counter-trend rally can't occur.
The ideal set up for a rally would be for the DJIA to trade down around 10000, the S&P 500 to trade down to 1175, and the NASDAQ to the 2000 level. These three areas would provide a nice springboard for an 8-10% rally.
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of September 15th:
1) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .205
2) EWZ: Brazil Index- .171
3) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .152
4) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .110
5) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .088
6) DDM: Ultra Dow 30 Proshares ETF- Not Rated
7) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
8) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated
9) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- Not Rated
10)
At first glace, it looks as if the commodity and BRIC nation trades have dissipated. For the short run that is true. But, the highest ranked ETF's in our universe remain T-Bills, short term bonds, crude oil which are falling in strength also. Our current position in DDM, KBE, and the IYF balance out the weakness of our commodity and BRIC holdings. Once we get closer to the election, and the magic ends, we will be adding more commodity and oil related positions.
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for September 2008
1) FSCHX: Chemicals
2) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
3) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
4) FCYIX: Industrials
5) FSPTX: Technology Portfolio
6) FSCSX: Computers & Software
7) FSCPX: Consumer Discretionary
8) FWRLX- Wireless
9) FSRBX: Banking
10) FSVLX: Home Finance
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
Honorable Mention (Holds):
None
The Week in Review:
What a week! Hurricane Ike will likely cause a mini panic in the stock market as gasoline prices spiked over the weekend.
