Only on a day like today does an over 1 percent decrease in industrial output move to third page. But this item (and this hilarious article) reminded me to update the indicators used by the NBER BCDC are headed. Their trajectories are, in general, not too comforting.

Consider first the series that prompted the investigation. In Figure 1, I show (in logs) industrial production and manufacturing production; the former is the one considered by the NBER BCDC.

The peak was in January 2008 for industrial production. Interestingly, the peak for manufacturing was earlier, in September 2007. I found this remarkable given the stress that has been made about strong export growth supporting US aggregate demand. I would have thought there would be a much less marked decline in manufacturing output. But apparently this is not the case.

Next consider nonfarm payroll employment. I've discussed the various aspects of the August employment situation release already (1), but it's useful to recap what the peak in this series was: December 2007.

Now consider real personal income less transfers and real manufacturing and trade sales, the last two key series focused on by the NBER BCDC.