Technical Analysis: Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE :XOM)
By:
Andrew Thursday, September 18, 2008 9:41 AM

This post is dedicated to profound technical analysis of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) daily chart using breakout lines and my volume indicator signals. The starting point for the current bearish swing is the gap which occurred on the 29th of August. However, it was rather small the stock price gapped from 80.01$ to 78.89$, by 1.4% lower. The stock price declined by 1.12$ absolute value. Two weeks (14 days) passed since that gap and it hasn’t been filled yet. Disappointing fact for the bulls. In fact this bearish swing ended on the 10th of September. What is more interesting, I got the buy signal a day later, on the 9th of September when the stock price reached its low of 73.26$. I didn’t believe that signal and thus didn’t get into any position. When there was another bullish signal on the 11th of September I began to think about Exxon Mobil seriously. But my indicator’s signals are not the only thing that made me really bullish. You can see the red breakout line on the chart. it was broken on Friday. That’s another bullish sign. The nearest target price for the Exxon Mobil stock is 80$. It is the low of the bar, which formed on the 29th of August and beginning price of the gap. I think that the stock price may fill the gap in the next 5 or more days. On Friday the volume was significantly lower than during previous days. I suppose that it doesn’t mean anything important for us as long as the Fridays’ XOM close price is higher that the breakout line price. There is one problem however - that problem is the 22-day simple Moving average which can act as a strong resistance for the Exxon stock price. If the bullish forces on Monday will be weaker than Monday can be the day of a small triumph of bears, however that shouldn’t last for a long time and stock may rise on Tuesday and ongoing weekdays.
As for the options strategy that suits the current situation most of all i think is Bullish Call spread. there are many benefits of such strategy. The main benefits in my opinion are: risk reduction, pure stock price play (you shouldn’t worry much about volatility) and at last, significant time decay reduction (lowered theta). I think that 75$-80$ bull call spread is the best. You would pay only 2.6$ per share and your potential loss is no more than 260$ if you buy 1 contract for each leg. You potential profit is 240$ for the same number of contract per each leg.
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