Last week, investors saw themselves staring into the abyss, and nothing was
staring back at them. The credit crunch was getting worse. Money Market accounts
were headed toward the sub $1 dollar mark. Investment Banks were crumbling. And,
it looked as if the US economy was headed for a financial meltdown, and another
Great Depression. Oh, but we knew better!
On Thursday, the Calvary road into town as the US Government finally got off
their rear-ends and began tackling the problems overhang the financial sector.
The first order of business was to put a ban on the shorting 799 financial
stocks. Secondly, a $400 billion fund will help Money Market Funds retain their
par value of $1. And finally, $800 billion (or more) will be donated to
financial companies to prevent them from writing off additional bad loans.
What has been most impressive is how many foreign central banks have joined
in the chorus of reining in manipulative short selling, and now these central
bankers are working together to build the opening scene for the new bull market.
While the media was scaring investors, smart money players like Bank of
America went on buying spree by purchasing Merrill Lynch .
It reminds of
the movie "It's a Wonderful Life". Remember Mr. Potter?
If an investor could only read between the lines, they would see that some
investors (Like Mr. Potter) were scooping up bargains while others were
panicking.
Bank of America is like Mr. Potter, and Potter wasn't selling,
Potter was buying!
-Bank of America buys Countrywide and Merrill Lynch at
distressed prices.
-J.P. Morgan buys Bear Stearns.
-Barclays is buying Buy
Some Lehman's Assets.
Frankly, I feel like a kid in a candy store. As I
watched my quote monitor yesterday, I was saying to myself, "Ooh that looks nice
, I'll have one of those, Give me some of that". The market is getting into a
range where each new purchase excites me again.
As a result of my candy store state of mind, I added the ProShares Ultra
S&P500 Trust (SSO) to the DG ETF portfolio @ $48.13. I pulled the trigger
when the VIX index spiked to 42 on Thursday.
Now that the Calvary has road into town, many are asking if the stock market
has finally bottomed? I think the odds that the market bottomed on Thursday are
probably 80%. Sure there are problems, but history shows that fighting the Fed
when they get serious is a losing proposition.
Since the evidence of an economic rebound is not obvious to all, last weeks
rise in crude oil prices may incur on final decline to the $85/bbl mark before
beginning a new uptrend. The same goes for last weeks rebound in commodity
prices.