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Not To Be Trusted, Dead Cat Bounce Tuesday

 September 30, 2008 10:08 AM

Yesterday was the worst day for the energy groups I can recall.  I was also the point drop leader for the Dow, S&P 500 and I think the third worst day for the Nasdaq. A quick summary goes something like, assurances Sunday night that the two sides of the House of Representatives had come together and a bill would be passed on Monday, lower open across the board with energy underperforming the broad market, followed by three hours plus of grandstanding by lawyers who mostly do not understand or care to understand the problem, followed by a vote which despite assurance failed and you know the rest. The broad markets actually tried to close the gap to the energy groups by moving much lower into the close. The 10%+ moves in the indexes normally take weeks if not months but not yesterday.

[Related -JP Morgan (JPM): Goes Long Commodities, 3 Trades To Cash In]

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today
  4. Refining Update Watch
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch - Wiki tab is updated

  • (DUG) - Out DUG October $40 calls for $4.30, up 79%.
  • (RIG) - Added RIG $120 Octobers calls for $2.90 with the stock down about 8% at $112.30.
  • (CLR) - Bought CLR $35 October calls for $3.70 (was bid, now mid) with the stock off 17% on the day. Unhedged, oily name on a down market, down oil, down group day.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil got whacked for $10.52 (9%) to close at $96.37 as the bailout got derailed. This morning crude is rallying with the broad markets up about $2 but I would not get too excited about a recover yet. There is little good news on the economic or production tracking front over the next few weeks that is likely to look bullish for the commodity aside from a return of the demand from ramping Gulf Coast refineries and potentially a report on OPEC output out of one of the tanker tracker companies.

[Related -United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG): 20% Pullback Is Rare Chance To Buy]

Natural gas fell $0.41 to close at $7.22 yesterday in lockstep with oil but only half as much on a percentage basis. Gas continues to search for a bottom zone and while I was thinking it will trade in a range of $7.50 to $8.50 for the next couple of months I did not count on the turbulence from Capitol Hill's yesterday. This may be setting up a long play for me on (UNG) with a call spread to boot.

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