Downright awful! That is about all one
can say about the performance numbers for measurement periods until September
30. As pointed out in a post at the beginning of the month, September, on average, has
historically been the worst month. And the past month truly lived up to its
reputation.
Firstly, something in lighter
vein.
Source: Unknown
Losses occurred throughout as shown
vividly by the performance tables being engulfed in red. The numbers speak for
themselves, although a few observations are worthy of comment.
Emerging markets, in general, have
underperformed mature markets over all measurement periods, and increasingly so
since the peaks of May this year - so much for the expected decoupling of the
stock markets of high-growth developing countries from those of the mature
markets.
The Venezuelan Caracas Index bucked the
trend and was the only index to deliver positive returns over the three- and
six-year and YTD periods. Don’t hold your breath for nationalization doing the
same for the US and European stock markets!
In local currency terms, investors in
the Toronto S&P/TSX 300 Composite Index (-22.0%) had the dubious honor of
having registered the smallest loss since the various markets’ respective highs,
followed by the Russell 2000 Index (-23.1%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Index
(-23.4%). In dollar terms North America and Canada still fared relatively well,
but were pipped at the post by the Swiss SPI Index (-21.4%).
On the deep red side of the scale, the
Dublin ISEQ Index (64.4%), the Shanghai Composite index (-62.3%) and the Russian
Trading System Index (-51.1%) have all seen investors’ money being
halved.
Regarding the outlook for stock
markets, David Fuller (Fullermoney) had the following to say: “We are entering a seasonally bullish period
for equities. Yes, stock market indices are in overall downward trends and you
can see big overhead top formations on the charts. However, the trends are also
at least temporarily overextended and sentiment is at a bearish extreme.
Therefore the next significant move is likely to be a reversion to the mean, in
the form of technical rallies towards the moving averages.”
Caution remains key to investment
decisions – there is no point in being brave at this juncture.
Click on the image below for a larger
table
Click on the image below for a larger
table.
