Reader Steve Albertson writes...
"Seemingly obvious question, but are you as bullish as you were a week ago before this huge drop, and a second question, could you share what you see in the pattern of GOOG that is so bullish to you? I see in the last year a lower high and a lower low for the first time ever. I noticed that Allan Harris has been calling for a major drop at the same time you seem so bullish. Since you are asking for questions, do you have any updated thoughts on AAPL and QCOM?"
'Interesting' questions, Steve.
Technical analysts attempt to measure how strong, high, and enduring a price move will be, and invest accordingly. The trick is to analyze the markets in a time frame appropriate to your (each investor's) tolerance for risk and objectives. Different time frames allow for differing perspectives. A plummet to many investors is a mere speed bump to others. Investors require a certain confidence, even faith, to see the other side of the decline, the consequent rise.
For 10 years now, you have requested my opinion re
Wal-Mart/WMT. As a former employee, I understand that the sudden plummet in late-1999 to ~$40 from its all time high of $70 occurred seemingly unexpectedly, and with ferocity. And then came the next nine (9) years of range trading -- $64 to $42 and back again, with the past ~3 years hovering in the low $40s. You could not understand then how I could foresee better days while the stock plummeted, nor could you accept that reality while the shares wandered about Wall Street's desert, seemingly aimlessly. But that wandering never was aimless; not then, and not now.
The same holds true for today's market, despite (in spite?) of its fearsome look and set of jaw. Remember that I fretted, feared, and warned for years about the very events that transpire today. My colorful (and beloved) metaphors pointed the way: the US would be the "
epicenter" of the coming decline, one that finds us standing, one foot dangling, at "
Mather Point." It tickles me that, years on,
The ECONOMIST chose to visualize my metaphor with the cover art for the current issue.
I have believed for some time that all is
not right with the global financial system. The fact that the markets decline today as they catch up with my fears from yesterday does not gratify me; I would prefer to be wrong.
