This article was a collaborative effort with:

 Andy Zaky  from Bullish Cross 

Based on the tremendous efforts by members at Mac Observer’s AFB to track IMEI iPhone numbers, Apple has drastically surpassed analyst’ Q4 iPhone sales estimates, and reached its goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008.  The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units.  It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus.  Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data.  

At MacWorld 2007, when Apple was trading at the same price it is today, Steve Jobs and Apple set a bold goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008.  Despite Apple’s consistent reassurances of meeting its goal, bearish analysts repeatedly raised irrational concerns about whether Apple could reach such lofty sales figures.   In January, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst who rarely comments on Apple, started the “missing iPhones controversy” which led to a herd of naive analysts to reduce their iPhone sales estimates to numbers that fell well below Apple’s 10 million iPhone goal for 2008.  Sacconaghi forecasted that Apple would only sell 7.9 million iPhones in the period.  This obviously put considerable pricing pressure on shares of Apple in February.