The day after I wrote a piece about the Asian markets
stabilizing, world markets dropped significantly again. The Dow was
down almost 6% as the US market shed multiple percentage points within the first
two hours of the bell ringing. Boeing, Merck, and Wachovia all posted their
dismal quarterly reports that combined with already edgy investors who were
skeptical of slowing worldwide growth and a deep recession - sent markets
worldwide into a spiral downwards: France’s CAC40 down 5%, NIKKEI down 6.8%,
Mexico down 7%, Argentina down 10%, and Australia’s S&P 200 down 3.5% -
depicted in the dismal shape of the Emerginvest
heat map.
An article in the NYTimes today: “Markets Fall
Sharply on Weak Earnings Reports,” stated that: “The main story is that
deleveraging among financial institutions is continuing,” Derek Halpenny, senior
currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, said. “Banks
worried about funding are selling assets to reduce their balance sheets.”
The wave of coordinated global bailouts has
helped banks’ capital ratios, he noted, but there is a painful readjustment
under way that will require some time to work through.”
The awful truth in my opinion is that after all
of the bad news, common investors might have thought things were going to
stabilize after the periods of upswings. While it is good to see the markets are
still not in a complete freefall, the reality of a long recession is hitting
investors and companies worldwide. The credit markets continue to show signs of
thawing – reduced bank borrowing rates, and a falling Libor rate. However, other
areas like commodity prices and continued market instability – alongside general
fears of a recession have continued to scare off investors as they sense more
bad news is forthcoming. A CNN Money article titled: “World
Markets Drop on Worries About Economy,” stated that “With 21% of
S&P 500 companies already having reported results, third-quarter profits are
currently on track to have fallen almost 10% from a year ago, according to the
latest estimates from Thomson Reuters.” It is scary to think that a few large
quarterly reports could have been enough to initiate such a massive selloff on
the jittery markets. With 79% of companies left to report this quarter, I expect
continued days like today around the world.