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Election Will Determine Defense Outlook
By: Zacks Investment Research   Thursday, October 23, 2008 8:23 AM

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In today's Zacks Analyst Interview, staff writer Mark Vickery interviews John Nelson Simon about the following companies: Boeing (BA), Hexcel Corp. (HXL), Ladish Co. (LDSH), Moog Inc. (MOG-A), Precision Castparts (PCP), Curtiss Wright Corp. (CW), Triumph Group (TGI), Oshkosh Corp. (OSK), Navistar International (NAV), Esterline Technologies (ESL) and URS Corp. (URS).

Amid the various uncertainties facing the market currently is the question of the presidential election being decided. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the defense industry, which Zacks senior analyst John Nelson Simon covers. We asked him for his take on the various industries he follows.

How are things holding up in the commercial aerospace sector at this time?

At the end of the third quarter of 2008, Airbus and Boeing (BA) reported a combined total of 7,534 aircraft in backlog and, at that time, they were delivering at an annualized rate of 752 aircraft. On that basis, it would take some 10 years to deliver all the aircraft on order.

Of the stated backlog, 458 shipsets were for the Airbus A350 XWB and 895 were for the Boeing 787, neither of which is yet in production (787 deliveries may start before the next decade, while A350 deliveries should start by the middle of the next decade).

Complicating matters is the ongoing machinists (IAM) strike against Boeing as well as the threat by that company's white-color engineers and technical employees (who are members of SPEEA) to go on strike early in 2009, which could shut Boeing down entirely. In addition, there is historical evidence that whenever Boeing comes out with a new aircraft type (such as the 787), the stocks of Boeing and its principal suppliers go into hibernation between the first announced order and the first successful delivery to an airline.

Sounds pretty bleak.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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