Sentiment Watch: Cautiously green feeling. Very busy with earnings so I’ll just get to it.

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Natural Gas Storage Preview
4. Crude Oil Inventory Review
5. Stuff We Care About Today - Lots ‘O Earnings Commnets (FSLR, WLL, XOM, TSO) plus CHK, OII, and SWN tonight
6. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: Wiki Holdings, $10KP, and ZEB Performance are updated.

• (SWN) - Out half SWN November $25 Calls (SWNKE) for $7.50, up 114% since entry yesterday. Will play with “house money” into earnings tonight.
• (DO) - $10KP Trade. Sold DO December $80 Calls (DOLP) for $11.40, up 315% since entry on 10/23. Just felt like it had done better than I expected in a far shorter amount of time.
• (CVX) - $10KP Trade. Sold all (5) of the CVX November $70 Calls (CVXKN) for $5.70, up 171% since entry on 10/16. Just lightening up a little pre Fed decision and after a nice run. Will add back if things tank post Fed as the flight to “big cap household names” theory still holds in energy.
• (XOM) - $10KP Trade - Added (5) XOM December $80 Calls (XOMLP) for $4.30 with the stock down about $0.60 on the day as the Dow and broad markets react at least initially in negative fashion to the Fed 50 basis point cut.
• (XOM) - $10KP Trade. Sold the (3) XOM November $70 calls for $9.40, up 137%. Holding the Decembers from the prior trade through earnings but felt it would not be prudent to have too much in the name before numbers.

10KP Watch:

• Current value: $16,100
• Cash: 67% ($10,700).
• See 10KP tab here.

Commodity Watch

 Crude Oil oil closed up $4.77 at $67.50 yesterday as commodities found fresh life from a falling dollar and increased faith in another round of OPEC production cuts. The dollar tumbled on expectations that today’s widely anticipated rate cut may not be the last. This morning crude is trading up a little over a $1.50 as the Dollar weakens further.

• Russia Watch: Russia said it may cut production 300 to 400,000 bopd to support efforts made by OPEC to boost prices. This news came out yesterday and goes hand in hand with my recent thoughts that the tide is turning for oil. OPEC is not playing and with Russian production declining and now potentially acting in concert with the Cartel I think oil has put in a near term bottom. Recall the world consumes about 86 mm bopd, OPEC produces roughly 30 mm bopd and Russia produces another 10 mm bopd.