So, what did I miss the past three days? I didn’t make it to Chicago for the
party and went to bed early. And, no, I don’t know that reveler featured above.
The only thing interesting me this morning was the make-up of the US
senate and that seems not to have reached the magic 60 seat level for absolute
control.
We had a nothing day Monday, followed by a light volume rally
yesterday and then a blistering light volume sell-off today. I’ve read a lot of
blogs posting with certainty that a year-end rally is in the cards now with lots
of people taking long positions. They must be disappointed today since they must
feel suckered.
I’d call your attention to a few charts below. First,
note the McClellan Oscillator which I post routinely demonstrating extremes
moving rapidly from much oversold to much overbought. Also you should note how
poorly the Russell Small Cap 2000 index has performed. The reason is because the
hardest to manipulate given all the securities. This is also the case for
Mid-Caps and so forth.
Let’s compare this to WSJ data just for fun.
We’re on the sidelines and that is the result of the
extreme volatility, recent oversold conditions on weekly charts and the “weekly
sequential” DeMark 9 indicator revealed in the chart below current through
yesterday. This reading could result in a number of possibilities: the downtrend
“may” be exhausted either temporarily by moving sideways, perhaps starting
another leg lower again after a brief “reaction”, reversing course and heading
up, or, if the trend is very strong the 9 might be ignored all together. But,
below you can see a “reaction” which is also sometimes built within the 9
itself.