In mid-August I predicted that bankruptcies for 2008 would reach 225 (see my post Bankruptcy Update). There had been 120 total bankruptcies at the time. The 120 bankruptcies as of August 15th implied a pace of about 195 bankruptcies, well shy of my prediction. But much has changed since mid-August, so let’s revisit that prediction.

According to Bankrupctydata.com, there have been 172 bankruptcies through October. If we assume that bankruptcies continue to accumulate at 17 per month for the rest of the year (the monthly average), the implied total for 2008 would be 206. However, we know that the bankruptcy pace has quickened since August. In fact, since mid-August, bankruptcies have been averaging about 21 per month. If we use 21 per month instead of 17 per month, the implied total for 2008 would equal 214, …still shy of 225.

That said, I expect the pace to quicken even further. So I stick by my call of 225, which would mean that the pace would have to increase to around 26-27 per month to be consistent with my call. Given the current credit environment, 225 might even turn out to be a bit of an underestimate, …but not by much.

As I mentioned in a previous post, 225 bankruptcies would fall far short of the 289 bankruptcies in 2000 and 383 in 2001 (the dotcom bust). We will not reach 289 bankruptcies this year. However, I would not be surprised to see 2009 challenge the 383 mark from 2001 (or about 32 bankruptcies per month). In fact, if we believe the predictions of my colleague Edward Altman, we should not be surprised to see the number of bankruptcies exceed 32 per month (see NYU’s Altman Sees 2009 Default Rate Doubling). Obviously default is not the same thing as bankruptcy; however, they trend together.

Nevertheless, below you can find an updated list of what I see as the “noteworthy” bankruptcies of 2008.