In a down economy, many money managers recommend that investors
focus on dividend paying stocks. There are many attractive qualities to
owning dividend paying stocks, some of which I've written about before.
In a weak market, though, dividend paying stocks can be even more
attractive. As stock prices fall, companies that can maintain or
increase their dividend payout provide an increasing dividend yield to
their stockholders. When you buy into a company that can sustain or
even increase a high yield, you are effectively "locked in" to that
high yield, which compounds every year, in addition to the likely
capital gain of stock price appreciation.
It's important to note, though, that in this economy dividend cuts
and eliminations are pretty common as companies get conservative with
their cash. What can look like a can't miss opportunity for locking in
a high dividend yield can vanish in a hurry when the press release
announcing a dividend cut comes across the wire. It's important that
investors make sure that the prospective company has a comfortable
margin for paying out the dividend before making the investment.
To provide some ideas, I've looked over the Magic Formula screens
used here at MagicDiligence (the top 100 stocks over 50 million market
cap and the top 50 over 2 billion), looking for companies with solid
yields of 3.4% or more and a dividend-to-earnings (payout) ratio of 45%
or less. This should provide a list of solid dividend payers with
enough margin of error to avoid having to cut the payout. Here are the
results:
| Stock |
Dividend Yield |
Payout Ratio |
| Pacer International (PACR) |
5.70% |
30.1% |
| Meredith (MDP) |
4.70% |
31.9% |
| Rockwell Automation (ROK) |
4.50% |
27.9% |
| Emerson Electric (EMR) |
4.10% |
39.0% |
| HerbalLife (HLF) |
4.00% |
21.5% |
| American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) |
3.90% |
24.3% |
| Intel (INTC) |
3.80% |
40.7% |
| Northrup Grumman (NOC) |
3.60% |
30.2% |
| McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP) |
3.50% |
33.7% |
| Boeing (BA) |
3.40% |
30.9% |
| Innophos Holdings (IPHS) |
3.40% |
9.9% |
All of these companies look attractive on a dividend yield basis,
and seem to have some margin of error to maintain their dividend
payments. And, of course, since they are Magic Formula stocks, we
expect them to be good companies as they generate high returns on
invested capital. However, this should be taken as a starting point.
The payout ratio is calculated against net earnings, which can
occasionally contain one time gains and other non-repeatable factors.
Also, you want to be sure that these companies have strong balance
sheets and that their high return on capital is sustainable, even
through down periods. These are things I examine and report on for MagicDiligence members.
Disclosure: Steve owns MHP