I am long a specialty retail play. I had to slap myself out of the stupor for owning one in an environment I have dubbed as an impending consumer recession. What am I long? Well, how about some Activision Blizzard (ATVI). I was fortunate/unfortunate enough (we'll know later) to get filled on some of my orders in the $10.xx region and I had a few more orders down in the $9.xx that did not get filled.
So, why am I long a retail name, much less a specialty retail name. Well, first and foremost, it is mainly as a hedge to some of my other retail shorts. So, let's make that abundantly clear. I am bearish on the consumer and the economy. But, such bearishness must be given protection to any rampant rallies that might occur and I've selected ATVI, as they are currently dominating competitors such as Electronic Arts (ERTS) and THQ (THQI).
Secondly, I would propose that video games are by no means recession resistant, but they are less affected by a recession than other types of specialty retail. Why? Gamers are hardcore. Many are addicts. A game costs a measly $40-60 bucks and gives you hours upon hours of entertainment. And, ATVI has some of the best titles out there right now, including the Guitar Hero franchise, Call of Duty (4th installment out for the holidays), World of Warcraft (new expansion pack out for the holidays), among many others. They offer relatively cheap products and this benefits them in an environment where the consumer is struggling. When that new game hits, most people gotta have it, especially if its an installment in an already proven franchise such as the games mentioned above.
Thirdly, in addition to the strong products set to hit for the holiday season, ATVI has some very highly anticipated games in the pipeline for the future as well. If anyone is a fan of Blizzard's games (now a part of Activision Blizzard), then you already know what I'm talking about: Diablo 3 and Starcraft 2. These are highly proven franchises and are long awaited sequels (especially Starcraft 2). The entire nation of Korea will probably pick up a copy of SC2, I'm not even kidding. The game's prequel, Starcraft, was that big of a hit over there. So, future revenue streams are well in place.
Fourthly, even in a weak consumer environment, ATVI was still able to deliver solid earnings and stick to their forecast. And, they even announced plans to buy-back $1 billion of stock. After all, they have $3 billion in cash. Some takeaways from the quarter,
"For the September quarter, Activision Blizzard had two of the top-10 titles in dollars on all console platforms in the U.S., according to The NPD Group.
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