We all need water to live. As useful as oil, copper and
corn may be, we could get by without them for a while. But water? Water
is a necessity. And for some, this makes it the ultimate commodity.
People
invest in commodities for a lot of reasons: for diversification; as a
way to play growth in the developing world; because they think demand
growth will outstrip supply.
By those metrics, water may be the
ultimate commodity investment. Demand for water is steady and
never-ending, meaning water investments should not be correlated with
broader economic developments. Meanwhile, history shows that as
economies develop, citizens will demand more and more water to support
richer lifestyles, making water an interesting play on countries like
China and India. And finally, the world is in a silent water crisis,
with rising demand set against limited supply; a classic commodities
squeeze.
Water Crisis
The world currently faces a water crisis of both supply and demand.
We're
taught to think that there's plenty of water: 75% of the Earth's
surface is covered with it. The problem is, most of that water is
useless: 97% is seawater, 2.5% is frozen in the ice caps and just 0.5%
is fresh and available for use. Worse, much of what remains is
contaminated, polluted or otherwise degraded, and not fit for
consumption.
On the demand side, water needs are growing ...
fast. The world's population growth provides an underlying pressure on
demand, while growth in the developing world accelerates that demand
curve dramatically.
Meeting this global crisis from a fixed
supply will involve massive expenditure, and it will be the companies
that clean, support, supply, reuse and save water that will benefit
from this flow of capital.
Supply
As if the
problem of a fixed supply were not enough, there are three further
major supply problems affecting the world's water situation.
First,
the distribution of existing water resources around the world is
horribly uneven: 60% of the world's fresh water is located in just nine
countries. And unlike many commodities, water isn't portable; it simply
doesn't make economic sense to transport water from (say) Canada to
(say) China; water, even if its value rises tenfold, is simply too
voluminous.
Second, where water is actually available, it is
often not available in a suitable form. It may, for instance, be either
too hot or too old, or, perhaps, too dirty or too salty. Increasingly,
it's also too polluted; in the U.S., the gasoline additive MTBE has
rendered a significant percentage of wells unfit for human consumption.
Third, in developed countries, where water is generally
available as needed, the infrastructure supplying it is old and
decaying. Estimates of how much a country like the U.S. must spend
upgrading its water infrastructure over the next 20 years measure in
the billions.