Global stock markets rallied for a
second consecutive day after the US government agreed to rescue the beleaguered
Citigroup (C) and as President-elect Obama introduced his administration’s new
economic team, emphasizing the need for quick action to hasten an economic
recovery and signaling that he may be willing to keep at bay higher taxes for
the wealthy.
The MSCI Word Index has improved by
10.1% since the start of trading last Friday, whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets
Index lagged somewhat and registered a more modest gain of 4.6%.
The table below shows the performances
of various global stock markets over the past two trading days, as well as
figures since the respective markets’ highs and for the year to date (all in
local currency terms).

The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose by
11.8% on Friday and Monday – only the 13th time since 1896 that the Index has
had a two-day winning streak with a gain of more than 10%, according to
Bespoke. “In prior occurrences when the Dow had one of these rallies
following long periods of declines (-30% over 200 trading days), the average
returns were notably more positive. While the next day had typically been
negative, over the next week and month the average returns improved
significantly.”
One must be careful not to attach too
much value to one- or two-day movements, but should also be cognizant of the
fact that stock markets bounced off multi-year chart support levels near the
2002 lows.
I said the following in my “Words
from the Wise” review on Sunday: “Oversold
conditions are bound to result in rallies from time to time (and possibly around
Thanksgiving), but these should not be trusted at face value. For a more lasting
market turnaround to happen, I would like to see evidence of base formations on
the charts, a 90% up-day, and relative outperformance by the financial sector.”
At the time of writing, no confirmation
had been received on whether yesterday was a 90% up-day, but the market’s volume
and breadth indicators were certainly was not too shabby. Although the past two
days’ outperformance of financials (Financial SPDR +18.7%) and banks
(Philadelphia Bank Index +18.3%) is encouraging, it is too early to mark a new
trend as far as relative performance is concerned.