On this first weekday
after Thanksgiving, it’s time to take a moment, look at the changes swirling all
around us and think about the tasks we must achieve together in the weeks ahead.
After more than six
decades of growth, America is sinking into its Second Great Depression of modern
times. The place is every home, business, and community.
The time is
now.
America’s Second Great
Depression is not a typical 20th century recession that happens to strike a bit
harder or linger somewhat longer. Nor is it merely a fictional scenario conjured
up by economists with a murky crystal ball.
America’s Second Great
Depression is the probable consequence of a great housing bust, a massive
mortgage meltdown and the biggest financial crisis in history.
It promises to bring the
worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under
90 has ever experienced.
It challenges the smartest
minds in Washington, defies the deepest pockets on Wall Street and threatens to
rip through our life with the force of a Cat-5 hurricane. And yet, among all
those making the decisions that could forever change our future, no one has
personal experience with a similar episode.
I don’t either. I was born
in 1946, just as we were leaving the final vestiges of America’s First Great
Depression behind. I’ve studied that historic period with books, charts and
numbers, but that’s not the same thing. I’ve lived in Brazil and Japan during
tough times, but that, too, was different.
What brings me closer to a
visceral understanding of this crisis is the half century I shared with my
father, J. Irving Weiss, one of the few economists who not only advised
investors during the First Great Depression, but actually predicted
it.
Dad was so proud of that
unusual feat, he began telling me stories about it when I was just five years
old. Vicariously, I lived through the Roaring Twenties, the Crash of ‘29, the
massive bank failures of the 1930s, and the many years of human suffering that
ensued. Through Dad’s teachings, I felt as though I was there with him when
investors lost fortunes, when we hit rock bottom in 1933, when we eventually
recovered and brand new fortunes were made. Dad was not only a loving father,
but also my mentor, partner and best friend.
I wish he could be here
today to write to you directly and help you get through these tough times
personally. But as soon as I was old enough, I helped him write his investment
reports; and in 1971, soon after I founded Weiss Research, he helped me write
mine. Although he’s gone, I can feel his vibrant energy and calming spirit
beside me; and from time to time, I will let him speak to you posthumously here
in Money and Markets.
Think of this message you
get from me each Monday as co-authored by the two of us. He will tell you about
his experiences and analysis during America’s First Great Depression; I will
tell you what it means for America’s Second Great Depression and what you
can do about it. A lot has changed since then. What hasn’t changed is my
family’s passionate desire to help you through it.
This entire effort is the
culmination of eighty-four years of research, beginning when Dad first went to
Wall Street in 1924 to learn everything he could about money.
Five years later, when the
great crash struck, he did not own any stocks. His parents were recent
immigrants from Eastern Europe with barely enough to keep food on the table. He
had to save everything he earned, bring it home and give it to his mother. He
knew how real estate had collapsed in Florida, and he saw how America’s farms
were in disarray. He didn’t want to gamble his hard-earned savings on another
bubble.
After the crash, the stock
market rallied for almost six months, and nearly everyone on Wall Street thought
the crisis was over. But Dad persuaded his clients and friends to sell
everything, get the heck out of the market, and pile up as much cash as they
could. He was so convinced the market would fall again, he even borrowed $500
from his mother to sell short — to take a crack at profiting from the market’s
decline.
Sure enough, the Crash of
‘29 was just the opening act of the great bear market. All told, from its peak
in 1929, the Dow Jones Industrials Average fell 89%. Compared to the Dow’s peak
in 2007, that would be tantamount to a plunge of more than 12,600 points — to a
low of approximately 1500. Dad explains it this way:
“In the 1930s, at each
step down the slippery slope of the market’s decline, Washington would
periodically announce some new initiative to turn things around. President
Hoover would give a new pep talk promising ‘prosperity around the corner.’ And
often, the Dow staged dramatic rallies — up 30% on the first round, 48% on the
second, 23% on the third, and more. Each time, I sought to use the rallies as
selling opportunities. I persuaded more of my clients to get rid of their stocks
and pile up cash. I even told them to take their money out of shaky
banks.
“On the surface, it might
have appeared that just sitting out the crisis got you nowhere. Actually,
though, it was a great strategy for building wealth. Prices were falling — on
homes, on automobiles, on almost everything. So the more prices fell, the more
your money was worth. Just by saving money, stashing the cash, keeping your job
and going about your daily life, you were building wealth.