Investors Business Daily has an article out on
Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) that could read straight out of the blog - namely, it has a customer whose pockets are endless and a long sight line on revenue (a rarity in this market) - remember, we have 2 names who rely on government and ironically both are up today in the casino (AVAV being the other). The one thing missing from the story is the recent shelf filing (
Nov 13: Emergent BioSolutions Files Shelf Offering) which has the potential to cause some serious dilution - the market has dismissed this completely; after a quick fall on the news, the stock has skyrocketed right back up. Nothing really new for blog readers but thought I'd put the story up due to the positive notice of this small cap - the key for EBS is getting some of their secondary product to market by 2010... also some closure with their proposed acquisition of Protein Sciences which still appears "up in the air".
This is simply the best chart I can find out there...
- Rockville, Md.-based Emergent has the sole U.S. approved vaccine for the deadly disease (anthrax). Over the last decade, it has sold 30 million dosages of its BioThrax vaccine, mostly to the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services. About 2 million of those doses have gone to troops. The rest have gone to strategic stockpiles to be used in case of a biological attack.
- "Hurricane Katrina still rings loudly in politicians' ears. Not being prepared for disaster is something no politician wants to be linked with," said Caris & Co. analyst David Moskowitz.
- In the past year alone, Emergent has signed two large contracts to deliver more than 33 million dosages of its vaccine over the next three years at almost $25 each. The price increases to about $27 per dose if the company can deliver vaccines with a four-year shelf life instead of the current three years.
- Emergent's results, tied to the timing of such large orders, have been lumpy. But the deals show the government's long-term commitment to combating the anthrax threat. And they give investors sight of some revenue through 2011. "In today's market environment, that's something that investors find pretty attractive," said Cowen & Co. analyst Eric Schmidt.
- Emergent is one of several companies now racing to answer the government's call for a better next-generation anthrax vaccine. The hope is that a recombinant vaccine, a different vaccine technology than the current BioThrax, will offer immunity faster and with fewer risks or side effects. That market could be huge.
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