Last week was a double blessing for the long stock market investor. The shortened holiday week allowed the rest and fellowship that Thanksgiving provides and to allow further thanks the major market averages expanded the current rally to 5 straight days after hitting new yearly lows early on Friday, November 21. The five day run has pushed the S&P 500 up 20% from the bear market low set just a holiday shortened week ago.

Now we are at the start of a new week and a new final month to one of the toughest economic years in the last 30. The big question is: What news will drive the market for the next 30 days? Truthfully, I am at a loss to find a strong indicator for the direction of the market over the next month. Here are some factors that I think could have a major impact.

• Consumer holiday spending will be the news du jour for the next 4 weeks. Most experts are expecting consumers to significantly cut back on holiday spending in the face of economic recession and job losses. Stocks to watch: Walmart (NYSE:WMT),  Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and Apple (NASD:AAPL).
• Congressional action to bail out the auto industry. Although I expect little action here, further economic bad news may push Congress to take action to help out the auto industry. Stocks to watch: General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F)
• The recession is finally here effect: Last week's GDP report showing negative growth for the 3rd quarter gave truth to the recession that felt like is was coming for over a year, starting with the mortgage industry meltdown in the Fall of 2007. The market as a leading indicator can now look forward to the eventual recovery. Stocks to watch: Everything but retailers and autos.
• Year end portfolio dressing. Mutual fund managers want to be holding winners at the end of the quarter and year. Any stocks that develop positive momentum will continue to do so through the end of the month. Companies whose earnings have not been impacted by slowing economies will be especially attractive. Stocks to watch: Coke (NYSE:KO), McDonalds, (NYSE:MCD) and IBM (NYSE:IBM).

The factors listed above are to help you get an idea where the market is heading as the month unfolds. I believe the retailers and autos will have a tough time with their high overheads and lack of marginal sales growth. Commodities (remember them from the 1st half of 2008) are dead until the Chinese growth engine is running again. Government policy and actions are the wild card. Will Congress take action before the end of the year or punt the current economic mess to the new Administration? December is shaping up to be especially difficult for investors. My belief is that there are tremendous values now in the stocks of good companies. The flip side is that the news will be driven by retail sales and consumer actions, which will probably be soft for the holiday season. I will most interested in companies that are unlikely to be negatively affected by the factors outlined above.