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Research in Motion Warns
By: TraderMark   Wednesday, December 03, 2008 4:24 PM

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So much for that early strength, but nothing matters until 3 PM. Things have gotten so dysfunctional in individual stocks that I have not looked at any of my watch lists since over a week ago. I have a series of about 12 watch lists, sorted by sector, with a few lists as "misc" (various sectors) and I sort it by best performance on the day to worst. In the old days I used to go look up the extremes (best and worst) for the day to see if there was news, what the charts looked like, are they breaking out, breaking down - is there a compelling buy? a place to begin to layer out?

Now? None of that. The only thing anyone looks at are indexes and ETFs. I'm the same. Why bother when 2 PE stocks can lose 50% and go to 1 PE stocks. Valuations have meant nothing; no sector leads for more than 2 days, today its a bogus rally in retail on the "hopes" of $1.50 gasoline and lower mortgage rates. Wow the exact same thesis that was told to us 3 months ago at $2.50 gasoline. That worked out well. But today it's retail that is great to buy whereas Monday this group was the hardest hit. This goes back to one of my 9 points - there is no leadership. You cannot own a stock and ride it for weeks or months anymore, outside of a handful of niche companies that are doing ok.

Anyhow the point is, at this time I miss a lot of individual company news because in the old days when a stock was down a lot there was usually a reason. A news event. Now, it just gets lost in the mess - stocks are down 15% for no reason other than the market is open that day. You can't tell any news flow from stock action - it is so haphazard. I did catch this Research in Motion (RIMM) warning only because its on the front page of every financial media site - but the stock was up earlier on the day (now flat to slightly down); par for the course in the market.
  • BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Ltd. on Tuesday lowered its forecast for its third-quarter revenue and earnings per share, citing the impact of the strong dollar and the weak U.S. economy.
  • The Waterloo, Ontario-based company said it now expects its adjusted earnings per share to be in a range between 81 cents and 83 cents for the quarter that ended Nov. 29. That's down from its initial forecast of between 89 cents and 97 cents per share.
  • It said it now expects third-quarter revenue to be in a range between $2.75 billion and $2.78 billion, down from a previous range of $2.95 billion to $3.10 billion.
  • RIM said two-thirds of the difference in the revenue forecast was due to lower-than-estimated unit shipments of existing products, which it attributed to the weak U.S. economy and shifts in product launch dates within the quarter.
  • It said its gross margin for the quarter would be between 45 and 46 percent, which it described as lower than expected.
  • But it cited strong customer response to its new BlackBerry phones launched in the current quarter and noted "strong momentum" in recent weeks.
Long Research in Motion in fund; no personal position


 

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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