The headline is fairly self-explanatory, but it’s true: UBS strategist David Bianco has a 2009 target on the S&P 500 of 1,300 – more than 50% above where it sits now. Talk about a V-shaped recovery.

As far-fetched as that might seem, I find these kinds of calls to be thought-provoking because it forces some comparative judgments between where the “market gurus” are, and where I’m at. The last time I did this was in mid-September in the days of S&P 1,250, and it made me realize just how bad the macro environment was becoming, and how little was being priced in to equities. Looking at past history, it seems to me like the S&P target must only be compatible with four-digit numbers, but how about Bianco’s argument?

He believes there are a number of large-cap stocks with excellent global growth prospects that will power the index higher, and while I agree with the large-cap leaning to some level, this particular angle is puzzling. What global growth? Decoupling, for those of you who remember, was dragged out to the woodshed and shot – that was one of my better fall outlook predictions.

There is a danger to being persistently negative, though, especially when you have the world’s central bankers lining up everything they have against you. So is it time to reverse course on my dour thesis that a global slowdown accompanied by scarce and expensive credit will weigh on sentiment? The data coming in continues to point in one direction, and that’s from someone who wants to be an optimist.

The other day, I noted that China was cutting interest rates in an attempt to spur sagging economic activity, as China’s manufacturing-dependent economy was apparently caught completely off-guard by the rapid drop in demand during the fall. Still, there is only so much interest rate manipulation can do when your trade partners feel very poor. American Express (AXP) CEO Ken Chenault said today that changing spending patterns have hit across all income classes, including the affluent his company is known for having.