When I think of the Jos. A. Bank (JOSB), I think of Yogi
Berra’s saying “Nobody goes there because it is too crowded.”
Only in the case of JOSB, it sounds like this: “EVERYBODY goes there because
it is NOT crowded.” As most men who shop there will attest, you are lucky to see
and handful of customers shop at there at once at any given time. Nevertheless,
it seems that JOSB operates in a very different economy and there is an
incredible disconnect between its performance this year and the rest of the
economy as well as other retailers.
JOSB reported 3rd quarter numbers couple of days ago and they were stellar
even by a healthy economy’s standards.
They were truly incredible considering that negative double-digit same-store
sales for retailers have become the norm. JOSB reported same store sales of 7%
for the quarter (the company doesn’t report monthly numbers anymore). Total
sales were up 13.7%. Operating profits before taxes were up 20.3%. Cash was up
year-over-year, and inventory growth lagged sales. Every single metric was
simply beautiful.
A great number of the company’s stores were opened over the last three years
which puts them in the category of “immature.” New stores, almost by definition,
generate lower sales than mature stores. As stores mature, same store sales rise
and profit margins expand. In addition, the company is able to spread
advertising dollars against a large store base, which is another reason why the
margins increased.
By the year-end JOSB should have over $100 mln of cash, which is about a
quarter of its market cap. The margin expansion may actually continue into next
year. JOSB said that it will slow down store openings next year but it will
increase offerings of big and tall merchandise. I believe this will help JOSB
generate more free cash flow as well as drive (a much higher margin) same store
sales. At some point the economy will catch up with this retailer, but a lot
of internal positives I just mentioned should mitigate the external
negatives.
