Although I don't necessarily agree with all of the predictions and recommendations offered at the site or espoused by its publisher, Eric Janszen, iTulip.com is a great resource for news and commentary. One great example includes a recent post in its discussion forum, "Report from the Front: Conditions of Employers," which reveals some eye-opening "first and second person accounts of business conditions," as follows:
Two weeks ago in Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? we published our bottom-up, data driven analysis of future unemployment that estimated 10 million job losses in 2009, and identified the industries likely to the affected most and least. Last week one of our members posted a thread entitled “How the Economic Crisis/Recession has Affected Your Job and Your Employer” that so far has elicited over 50 responses from across the US, with a few from the UK and Australia covering a broad range of professions. The comments reveal the speed and breadth of the decline in many industries, but also highlights a few bright spots, such as in disinfrastructure, also known as the Defense Industry.
Professions represented in the comments include:
ER doctor
Oil industry engineer
Semiconductor engineer
Piano repair specialist
Machinist
Executive search business owner
Financial analyst
Video game industry software engineer
Restaurant worker
Intellectual property attorney
Professional gambler
Advertising agency owner
Electronics supply business owner
Independent Consultant and Software Engineer in Defense Research
Systems Engineer for a large computer company
University staff
NASCAR race team research engineer
Software engineer for a small software house
Commercial airline pilot
Real estate developer
IT professional for a loan servicing company
Aerospace/Defense electronics manufacturing business owner
Well drilling and well service firm owner
Advertising business owner
Corporate R&D scientist in the biomedical industry
And more.
Summary observations in line with our forecast:
Most readers in most industries are experiencing job declines
The economy hit an unemployment inflection point in October 2008
FIRE Economy players who were able to hang on to bubble era winnings (e.g., hedge fund managers) are still spending heavily
Defense industry is still hiring (we call it the disinfrastructure industry)
Federal spending is still strong but state spending is collapsing along with state budgets as state and local tax revenues implode
The recession has still not widely changed spending and savings habits yet; not until Q2 2009 will the malls clear out
The unemployed are filing out of the collapsing FIRE Economy and trying to file into productive industries such as health care but are finding few opportunities
The unemployed are trying to leave high unemployment areas for greener pastures but the local housing market is making moves to new job locations difficult because some housing markets simply have no buyers
Experienced professionals who are not willing to take major pay cuts are being laid off while less experienced, lower cost employees are kept
Observations that contradict our forecast:
Unlike previous recessions since the 1980s, even the health care and education industries are suffering due to misguided FIRE Economy investment practices that caused them expand budgets and take on enormous debts and imploding state budgets funded by income and real estate taxes.
Summary forecast and recommendations:
The next leg of the depression, fueled by high unemployment, started in Q4 2008 and will continue for several years
Go where the jobs are, geographically and by industry, before others beat you to it (e.g., if you you teach K-12, don't stay in a area that families are leaving. Go to regions where they are headed).
Avoid housing bubble ground zero regions like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and parts of California
A bad economy is a good time to start a business if you have the cash, with access to great talent and low fixed costs like salaries and rents
Weakness in alternative energy industry confirms our opinion: don’t invest in “green” until the spending programs are underway; substituting government credit for private credit is not an instantaneous process.
Read on for personal accounts from our members.
Chart from Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?
1. Fortunately my company is in pretty good shape. I work in the manufacturing sector for a corporation in the U.S. and we have benefited from being cash rich and competitors getting out of some of our business segments and we are getting their customers. We've had some down days at my facility and four-day work-weeks due to demand, no real layoffs yet. It wouldn't surprise me if some of our contract labor gets let go soon.
2. I am a doc in a community Emergency Department in the Northeast. Our volume is down 10% this year. I don't know if the problem is people unwilling to pay the co-pay, or coverage is down, or if it is a fluke. It has forced our group to cut back coverage hours which has been workable so far but can be dicey when multiple unstable patients present at the same time. We are running very thin at the moment, as our payer population wasn't great to begin with.
The hospital itself has had solvency issues, which up until recently I figured would not be an issue as someone would eventually back us, if even the state. Now I am not so sure as state budgets are getting killed and we could go under. Fortunately our group is affiliated with a large university and there are multiple job openings in the area. I don't own a house and my job is portable, so we will be fine as a family. The local community I am concerned about, however.
3. Working in oil industry in engineering position I still feel pretty good. Even though most companies have stopped the rush for new people I do not foresee the layoffs in US. If there are layoffs these will be really ugly I would expect companies will force to retire baby boomers. My company stopped recruiting professionals with 15 to 20+ year of experience but was still recruiting fresh folks. The only bad thing is with these falling oil prices salaries will stop the recent rapid growth.
Even in a recession, people still want to drive the car so we need to find, develop and produce fuel for it.
4. I am in the professional and business services sector in the bar chart above. The company I work for has had a good year but the guys upstairs are quite concerned about the future. Our Christmas bonus will probably be about half the usual, and no raises next year. Our main concern is our clients ability to get funding. Some of our work has historically been "recession-proof", but I do not know if that will hold true in an extended depression.
5. I'm a blue-collar worker in manufacturing. In a flat industry, our company was actually growing the last couple of years. We recently merged with one of our competitors, and while our company is doing well, production is leaving the facility that I work at. We're not looking at layoffs yet, but certain areas will be on shortened work weeks.
I work in maintenance, my particular craft is still in high demand, and I would say that is true in general for skilled crafts. People don't seem to be as interested in working the trades any more with all the emphasis on high tech and computers. I have a feeling that might be changing in the near future. In our merger the areas that are getting job cuts are all white-collar jobs in management, marketing and sales, etc. I don't see my job going away any time soon, and I feel confident in my ability to get a job regardless.
One of the bad things has been that my annual raises haven't kept up with inflation over the years I've worked here, but I've been able to increase my wages by getting more skilled jobs, and working to increase my technical skills. This recession and downturn might delay my retirement some, but I don't see it affecting me too badly. My only debt is my mortgage, and house prices where I live have remained level. The recession means that I'll be able to make improvements on my house at a discount. Cash is king.
6. I work for an arts related non-profit. I had been looking for a new job actively before this crisis hit but I might ride it out here for a bit longer before doing so at this point. A lot of foundations base giving rates on three year cycles, so we're likely to weather the storm quite well for at least a while. Maybe if I'm lucky by the time things start looking down here things will be picking up elsewhere.
7. This year's annual donor's campaign has definitely been slow, especially at the high end of giving.
8. A few days ago I spoke with a friend who is active in executive search. She said back in October it was like someone turned off a faucet across all industries and up and down the executive hierarchy. There is virtually no hiring of executives happening.
This is especially disturbing because it is this time of year when recruiting efforts spool up in anticipation of Q1 budget disbursements for hiring.
9. I work for a bar and restaurant in a mostly rural, Northern California small town.
Business is not down compared to last year. People still want to socialize and catch a buzz. I have noticed that no one is talking about the economy anymore now that gas prices have come way down. Last summer, it was a topic for everyday.
10. Thankfully I was able to find gainful employment after my employer blew up, unlike my former CEO at Lehman.
11. I'm in the video game industry. The industry has continued the consolidation it’s been going through the last few years. It may be speeding up, but it is difficult to tell.
Very little direct impact so far. One challenge is hiring.
