Sometimes you can't tell what a market is really doing until it's all over. But I can tell you that it really was different in this bear market.

Deflation reared its head at the end.

Hard to imagine given rising food, tuition, gas, heating and healthcare costs.

I'll give you a story to show the difference. Back in late 2001, a pretty severe bear market, and right after the World Trade Center attack, I recommended Tiffany's (TIF). It seemed outrageously wrong–bear market, fear... Even some of my most loyal readers skipped that one. A couple later wrote to say they felt like kicking themselves.

That bear market would run on till spring of 2003. But while the indexes were falling, Tiffany went from $21 in October 2001 to $35 by July 2002. The indexes were still in bear markets. By last November it was up to $53.

At the same time, stocks of luxury brands like Nordstrom (JWN), Inter Parfum (IPAR), Coach (COH)and LVMH also did very well.

They won't this next year. Luxury stocks may make a nice start off the bottom because they are so far down from their highs, but that trend won't have good legs. The earnings fundamentals aren't there.

Too many hedge fund moguls and their trophy wives and venture capitalists have gone bust. Only drug dealers and rap artists can still afford and desire to flaunt their bling now.

We already have a real estate deflation brewing. Next up... shoe deflation? Silk nighties? I'd think twice before buying stocks of upscale luxury brands in the beginning of the next recovery. This recession did not spare the rich. Think of all those bankers and brokers out of work. (This is also why I'm not sure the rebound will be as big as Rick predicts and will be unevenly spread.)

Some of this is hard to see. We are used to tech toys coming on market at high prices then dropping. But lower consumer prices are the last part of the puzzle. First come tight credit (check), falling demand (check), and a low returns on investments (check) that encourage saving rather than investing. Low prices are the last piece, the sign, not the cause, of deflation.

I don't expect healthcare insurers to give us a break. Ditto the local governments that set our property taxes. But elsewhere expect to see a lot more resistance to luxury and even good middle of the road consumer niceties. Expect to see TVs, 3G phones and such gadgets drop in price faster than the usual.

And don't expect Tiffany's stock to bounce sky high, either.