Last week, I gave you my take on what happens in the market in 2009. While the failure of the auto bailout bill set the market back on Friday, I am sticking with my prediction.

Here is why. If you recall, the bank bailout failed the first time around as well. After a few days of political grandstanding and these slime bags pointing fingers at one another, the bank bailout came before the senate once again and the second time it passed.

I look for a similar fate for the auto bailout bill. Over the next week, we will see Democrats and Republicans alike mugging for any camera and microphone they see. They will point fingers and claim that they are looking out for you the taxpayer. In reality, they are only looking out for themselves and trying to better their image and increase their own power.

In the end, their will be a bailout for the automakers. I don't see any alternative that can keep Ford, GM and Chrysler alive. The market dropped when the bank bailout failed and then rallied for a few weeks after it was approved. I look for a similar path this time around.

Having said this, what is my top pick for 2009? It is a new Exchange Traded Fund from a group called Direxion Funds. The people at Direxion have taken ETFs to a new level they are offering funds that have triple the leverage of the underlying index.

What does this mean? It means that if you have one of these ETFs and the index goes up one percent in a day, this ETF will go up three percent. If the index goes down one percent the ETF goes down three percent. This is great leverage like you might get with long-term options, only these ETFs don't have an expiration date.

There are only four bullish funds and four bearish funds. The funds are bullish or bearish on the Russell 1000, the Russell 2000, the Russell 1000 Energy Index and the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index.

Here is a table with the eight funds offered:

I like the Large Cap Bull (BGU) for my top pick in 2009. As I laid out in last week's IDE article, "If History Repeats Itself, You Will Want to Be In The Market For The Next Six Months". I look for the markets to improve dramatically over the next 12 months and I look for the big cap names to be the biggest beneficiary of the market improving.

I don't necessarily think we will see a 42 percent gain over the next six months like we saw in 1974, but even if it goes up 25 percent over the next year, the BGU will gain 75 percent. After the performance of 2008, I think anyone would be happy with a 75 percent gain in 2009.

I am going to take minute to toot my horn. I have done fairly well with my long-term predictions over the last couple of years. In 2007, I predicted that copper would move higher and I gave IDE readers Southern Copper as a pick. The stock went up exactly 100 percent over the course of the year.

In September 2007, I predicted that retailers would suffer dramatically because of the credit crisis. The S&P Retail Index has declined from 500 in September '06 to a low of 207 last month.

This past April, I put out a special report called "The Sun Sets On Oil". I was a little early on this one as oil continued to climb up until July, but after peaking at 146 in July, oil has fallen over 70 percent in the last five months.

I don't make these predictions based on making readers feel better. I make my predictions based on how the markets have behaved in the past and the overall sentiment toward that particular market. I believe that the only way you can see huge shifts in the market is when almost all investors are thinking alike and you have to go against that crowd mentality. All of the previously mentioned predictions were made based on being a contrarian.

This year's prediction is based on the same formula, and since it has been a week, I can tell you that I recommended long-term call options on the AMEX Diamonds Trust to K.I.S.S. subscribers last week.

Good luck and good trading, Rick