Today was a pretty boring session for those that stare at their computer screens all day as major stock indexes stayed in a tight volatile range as most pulled back around 1% on lower volume. This was taken to mean two different things for two different class of traders.
The bulls championed today’s action because they were able to hold onto the gains after retaking the 50 day moving average. However, on the other end, I heard bears say that the inability of the market to rally further on the gains shows lack of confidence and confirmation on yesterday’s gains.
I on the other hand have no opinion and take the market for what it was today. A tight ranged inside day (basically an inside day. A few indexes went a little outside yesterday’s price range) on lower volume. It was neither bullish or bearish. It just was what it was.
Now, there was one thing that happened today that has not happened yet during this entire downtrend. While many people tried to play super-hero by calling bottoms in September and October, I stayed with the downtrend and thus made good money on some very solid shorts. Since then the market has gone range bound from 10/15 to 12/17 on the SP 500 with that index falling just .38%. That tight movement the past two weeks has made it hard to take new longs or new shorts.
That is why I have continued to recommend to my subscribers that they keep new longs or shorts small until a clear trend is evidenced via higher volume and a break higher above this two month range or a break lower from the same range. Either way, going short or long is fine with me, as long as we can make some money.
Some of the best money to be made has come via ETFs and if any of you have been trading my ETF recommendations I guess all I can say is congratulations. Once again, another ETF has moved 50% in my favor and yet I don’t have a position because I don’t fell comfortable holding ETFs. This might be a game that I definitely need to get involved because I have done very well on the long and short side with my ETF calls and would have probably doubled my return this year by playing the 2x and 3x ETFs that I must ethically say is helping to ruin this great market. Even though some big gains can be had by them they are still not healthy for the market. Like so many other things.
There are two groups that are clearly leading and I am long two leading stocks in each sector so if you are looking to go long I am long two leading stocks in the two leading industries that should produce some good gains if we can get this LOW volume Santa Clause rally going.
Now, while I would LOVE for this bear market bounce to turn into a bull market, everything in my analysis of technical analysis tells me that it would be foolish to be a raging bull here. There are a couple of easy to use technical signals that will help keep you in an uptrend for the majority of it and visa versa for downtrends.