Earnings season does not really begin in earnest until NEXT week but the first wave is hitting this week. I believe this quarter will be one of "pulled guidance" (we have no visibility) and lots of complaints about the stronger dollar hurting the multinationals. Bulls will keep saying "yes but that's the past, you have to buy in anticipation of the coming recovery". Bears will snort. So we begin....
Here are some of the names I am watching both for company specific comments and greater macro economic views. I don't have time to break it out like this every week since so many more companies begin reporting each week, but here is an example of what I look at each week of earnings season as I assimilate as much info as possible ;)
Monday: Fund position
Mosaic (MOS) - we've had a nice recovery into a key resistance area (50 day moving average). You can see this stock so trashed that the 200 day moving average is not even within the picture (it's up in the mid $80s!).
I expect the news to be not so great, and talk of recovery "one quarter out" but it will take longer than that I surmise. That said, we hold a few commodity stocks on the "reflation" trade and any day oil, or the Baltic Dry Index rise HAL9000 and friends drive up commodity stocks as if the world economy will turn any moment now.
Wednesday: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) - as a horde of December retail reports arrive on Thursday, we should get a preview with
BBBY. Let the bankruptcies and strip malls emptying begin. I mean... let the 2
nd half 2009 recovery begin...
Family Dollar (FDO) - one of the
beneficiaries (in theory) of my "
Pooring of America" theme (plus first consumer led recession in 25 years).
