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New York Times: As Vacant Office Space Grows, So Does Lenders' Crisis
By: TraderMark   Tuesday, January 06, 2009 1:59 PM

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Normally I'd be worried about this type of story and offer dire warnings that I've been repeating for a long time. I'd fill you with holiday cheer about how retail outlets you know will go bankrupt, one off mom and pop shops you never heard of would go under, and strip malls across Americana will be sitting 30-70% empty in about 12-15 months. How shrinking small businesses who once sat in office building suites will go under and leave half empty floors in building across building. However, President Elect Midas shall magically fill 80% of all empty office space by transforming a nation of service workers into shovel diggers and Caterpillar machine workers. (and solar panel installers and school retrofitters - whatever that is) How that fills office space, I don't know - but work with me here. It's a thesis. (need I remind you this all shall happen "in 6 months" when the US economy returns to "good times") The other 20% of office space that Obama does not fix with his healing hand? That's what the next bailouts are for (Dec 22: Wall Street Journal - Property Developers Ask for Government Bailouts)

Again, I'd like to reiterate I like this Obama guy - I just think by this summer or fall, when people who expect the man to part the seas with his magic wand get disappointed, he is going to unfairly lose his honeymoon. But until then, let's clap in glee - shall we?
  • Vacancy rates in office buildings exceed 10 percent in virtually every major city in the country and are rising rapidly, a sign of economic distress that could lead to yet another wave of problems for troubled lenders.
  • With job cuts rampant and businesses retrenching, more empty space is expected from New York to Chicago to Los Angeles in the coming year. Rental income would then decline and property values would slide further. The Urban Land Institute predicts 2009 will be the worst year for the commercial real estate market “since the wrenching 1991-1992 industry depression.” (is that the worst year pre or post bailout?)
  • Rising vacancy rates were expected in Orange County, Calif., a center of the subprime mortgage crisis, and New York, where the now shrinking financial industry dominates office space. But vacancies are also suddenly climbing in Houston and Dallas, which had been shielded from the economic downturn until recently by skyrocketing oil prices and expanding energy businesses. In Chicago, brokers say demand has dried up just as new office towers are nearing completion. (strange for an economy that should be recovering "by the 2nd half of 2009")
  • There is no relief in sight for Orange County, where subprime lenders and title companies once dominated the market but are now shedding space because their business has dried up, and big banks are now shrinking because of a wave of mergers. The vacancy rate has soared from 7 percent at the end of 2006 to 18 percent, a rate that the Tampa area should match this month, local real estate brokers say.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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