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CBO Projects $1.2 Trillion Deficit for 2009
By: TraderMark   Wednesday, January 07, 2009 2:59 PM

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I think it's gotten to the point that people are getting immune to the large numbers thrown around. The Federal Reserve is backstopping or supporting $8.5 Trillion of markets. We hand the banks $700 Billion. We have another stimulus coming of $800 Billion. We gave out $160 Billion last spring as "stimulus".

At some points these numbers matter - this grand experiment of pumping up a debt laden society by.... more debt.... is frankly scary. The largest federal deficit we ever ran was $400 Billion-ish. The punditry has been saying this year we will hit $1 Trillion in fiscal 2009. Today the Congressional Budget Office said we are heading for $1.2 Trillion. One of my 2009 Outlier Predictions was the economy will be so weak, and the government so desperate that we will hit a $2 Trillion Deficit in fiscal 2009 (October 2008 to September 2009). So I am saying double what the punditry says, and 5x what our largest ever deficit has been in our history. Only $800 Billion more to go and with (a) far lower tax revenue in 2009 since this "2nd half recovery" is complete hogwash and "Main Street America" in free fall, and (b) what I believe our government will do to "save" the housing market as it does not respond as they "wish" in early 2009, I believe my prediction has a fair chance of happening.

*note: the "wars" are not even counted as part of our deficits since they are not "expenditures" in the government eyes - what a farce. Either is the AIG bailout or Citi or all those - so it's even worse than the CBO is showing you. Far worse. This is the problem in America right now - our government has been changing reports to hide things for the better part of 2 decades. How do you address the problem when you don't even admit there is one?

Folks, someone has to pay for this at some point - these are not just imaginery numbers on a spreadsheet somewhere. When global economies recover the long term interest rates on our debt (Treasuries) are going to race higher, making this debt ever more expensive.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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