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Railroads Derailed?

 January 13, 2009 05:46 PM
 

CSX Corporation (NYSE:CSX) announced results that were below Wall Street expectations. Barron's had some comments about the company while CNBC's Bob Pisani had some choice words:

Another one drops guidance. CSX became the latest large company to abandon guidance. The good news is that it's not necessarily a bad thing to abandon guidance when no one–even the company–has any visibility. Providing guidance in this environment only serves to weaken credibility when the company misses or brings down numbers."

The bad news is that this leaves analysts and reporters with even less clue as to what to expect, and may well increase volatility rather than decrease it.

Today's development is no surprise to premium members. As I pointed out in mid-December, the price action in railroads were tipping us off back then that "something was not right". Here are some charts to watch:

Dow Jones Transportation Index ($TRAN)


Relative Momentum vs. S&P 500 Index, Daily Chart

We can see from the above Transportation Index that its November lows have not been tested. The bears have the upper hand right now as investors wait to see what earnings look like for other railroad companies.


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Rich
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