Stephen Frankola sends: As economic and stock market conditions continue to show little improvement, investors naturally look for safe havens to make investments. The good-times goal of appreciation of almost seems like wishful thinking; preservation of capital is the more important goal for many investors.
One usual area of perceived relative safety are consumer necessities. Companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), McDonalds (MCD), and Wal-Mart (WMT) have attracted investors as stocks of more discretionary purchases (premium clothing, travel, premium restaurants) have tanked.
As an appreciator of many things fizzy, I decided to take a look at various beverage companies who may enjoy some benefits in a rough market as an area of perceived safety.
First is Coca-Cola (KO), a company that has been a longtime favorite of Warren Buffett. KO has actually fallen by an amount similar to the general market - shares are now down about 30% off of their 52-week high. Coke is one of the most recognizable brands worldwide, and shares have historically enjoyed generous valuations because of that valuable brand power. Though the stock’s current PE of 17x doesn’t seem cheap, it is compared to KO’s 5-year average of 20x. KO’s PE is even higher if the time frame is expanded beyond five years; during the rougher few prior years, KO’s PE was close to 30x for much of the time. (Full table here from Morningstar.com) Price-to-Sales (P/S) and Price-to-CF (P/CF) ratios are trading at similar discounts to historical levels, implying that KO could realize 30+% of upside if it were to trade back at historical valuations. In the mean time, the stock is currently yielding roughtly 4%, which isn’t bad considering the pathetic yield in Treasuries at the moment.
Many parallels can be drawn between KO and Pepsico (PEP). KO’s beverages do outsell Pepsi’s worldwide, but Pepsico owns the valuable Lay’s snackfood brands and has done well increasing sales of non-soda beverages.