Commercial real estate, next shoe to drop....
James Quinn
January 19th 2009
America’s economy supports more than 1.1 million retail stores. There are approximately 1,100 Malls in the United States, not counting the thousands of strip mall centers. That will soon change as once thriving malls become ghost malls. By 2011, America’s malls within two years will have an entirely different set of numbers.
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) chief economist Michael Niemira tries to put a good face on the gloom. He says, “In the midst of all this doom and gloom, it’s hard to imagine it getting better… But keep in mind, what happens in strong downturns is there’s a hefty pent-up demand. It’s wrong to extrapolate these conditions for the next year or two.”
But Mr. Niemira is probably wrong. There is no pent-up demand. Americans have bought everything they’ve desired for the last twenty years. The over-spending and over-leverage will take a decade to unwind.
According to the ICSC, about 150,000 stores are anticipated to shut down in 2009, in addition to the 150,000 that closed in 2008 and 135,000 in 2007. Normally, 110,000 to 125,000 new stores open per year. At least 700,000 of retail jobs will be lost. The opening of new stores will grind to a halt in 2009.
Some major retailers that have closed or will close include: Circuit City -728 stores; Linens N Things - 500 stores; Bombay Company- 384 stores; Sharper Image-184 stores; Foot Locker -140; Pacific Sunwear - 153. Other large retailers are closing underperforming stores and scaling back expansions plans. By 2011, at least 15% of the existing retail base will have gone to retail heaven. With the amount of vacant stores likely to be in excess of 200,000, there will be no need for the construction of new locations for many years.
Most of the retailers that are closing lease their locations from mall developers such as General Growth Properties, Simon Properties, Mills Corp., Pennsylvania REIT, and Vornado Realty Trust. These developers have a quadruple whammy hitting them in 2009. Many borrowed heavily to finance massive mall expansion. These loans were generally for five to seven year terms. The Wall Street wiz kids and their Collaterized Debt Obligation (CDO) machine generated the vast majority of financing in the last half decade.
According to commercial real estate expert Andy Miller, the collapse will come more rapidly than the residential collapse. “By contrast,” he says, “in the commercial world, the properties are fewer and much bigger. For example, you may have ten properties in a commercial pool that ultimately works its way into CDOs. Those loans are huge. You may have a shopping center loan in there for $25 million and an office building loan for $30 million dollars. As a result, if you have a default on just one of those loans, you can effectually wipe out all of the subordinate tranches.
Miller adds, “And that is why when you see the problems begin to appear on the commercial front. It’s going to be a much quicker sort of devolution than we saw on the residential side.
