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On The Edge of The Abyss
By: Karl Denninger   Friday, January 30, 2009 9:30 AM

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So you recently saw my short-term and intermediate-term targets and the rationale for them.

Today you're going to see my warning - to The Administration, to anyone who will listen, which, it appears, is nobody.

If nobody "in power" wants to hear it at least the people deserve to be warned so you know what can happen if poor decisions are made.

You're getting this on a "one night" delay; it was a major feature of my nightly video last evening on the forum..... but better late than never, and I decided, given the early-morning action in the futures, that this had to be put where everyone can see it.

Before I present this chart, I want to make clear that this is NOT a prediction.  It is, however, a caution.  It is a place we can go, but not one where we must go.

This, should Obama or others in Congress and The Administration try to play "too cute by half" and jack around the markets, the public, and the world, is what is going to happen:

That structure is known as a "pennant" or "symmetrical triangle."

The rules of technical analysis for this pattern are:

  • Pennants are continuation patterns - that is, whatever direction the market is moving when it comes in, it will move when it comes out.
  • The minimum target for the move is given by the length of the pole to which the pennant is attached.

In this case the pennant prognosticates a move downward of six hundred S&P 500 points from the break, which occurs at approximately 810.

That gives us a target on the S&P 500 of 210.

No, that's not a misprint. 

I said two hundred and ten, and I meant two hundred and ten.

This puts the DOW at TWO THOUSAND.

Mr.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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