If you save for retirement through a 401(k) plan, or have large IRA or Keogh Plan assets, you probably hurled your last statement in the bin. If you’d been making contributions consistently over the last decade, your last annual or monthly statement probably showed that the current value of your plan was well below the amount you had actually invested.
At this point, the temptation to work as long as possible, and then blow what remains of your savings on a round-the-world cruise and a suicide pill is considerable.
However, such despair is unwarranted.
Unless you have already given up all paid employment, or absolutely have to retire in the next year or two, the current bear market may have made your eventual retirement prospects more secure, not less.
You see, the most damaging factor for your retirement happiness was not the current downturn, but the preceding decade-long bubble.
Let me explain.
Savers who devote an equal amount each month to their long-term plans benefit from an important mathematical principle: Dollar cost averaging. Under dollar cost averaging, you put in the same amount of money each month, so that amount buys more shares if prices are low than it does if prices are high.
Thus, if a mutual fund trades at $1 in month one, $2 in month two and $1.50 in month three, then a dollar-cost-averaging investor investing $300 per month will buy 300 shares in month one, 150 in month two and 200 in month three. After his month three investment, he will own 650 shares at a cost of $900, for an average cost of $1.3846. Since the average price of the shares over the three months was month three’s $1.50, he has made an extra $0.1154 per share compared with the average share price.
That’s why prolonged bull markets are so bad for retirement investors (unless they are lucky enough to retire before the bubble bursts). In this case, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index stood at 459.27 at the end of 1994. Then after February 1995, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan moved to an ever-easing monetary policy with low interest rates, it took off for the stratosphere. It passed its current level of 825 in early 1996, and except for a short period in 2002 has traded above that level ever since.
So, even though retirement savers from 1996-2008 thought most of the time that they were doing very well, in reality they were buying shares at an over-inflated price, and just about every one of their monthly contributions is currently showing a loss.
It’s not the current bear market that has caused that loss.