GMXR Reported In Line Result; Promising Haynesville/Bossier Completions

Talk about a story that has gotten simpler. Think 25 Haynesville wells in 2009 consuming 98% of the budget and leading to a back end loaded year with 2009 growing 86% over 2008 levels.

• The 4Q Numbers:
  • Production: 35.7 MMcfepd (a bit higher than recently reduced guidance)
  • Revenue: reported $24.1 mm vs $21 expected
  • EPS of ($0.63) vs $0.06 expected
  • CFPS of $0.63 vs $0.61 expected
• Guidance:
  • 1Q09
    • Production: 2.8 Bcfe or 31 MMcfepd.
  • 2009
    • Production: 24 Bcfe or 65.8 MMcfepd, up 86% over 2008 levels. This down slightly from previous press release guidance of 24.7 Bcfe or 67.7 MMcfepd but will still be best in class among the small cap E&P’s. They had put the 24 Bcfe number in their most recent presentation a few days ago so its probably not a big shock.
    • EBITDA of $114.1 mm vs Street Consensus EBITDA of $119 mm
• Hedges: 41% hedged at a $7.77 gas price.
• Operations Update:
  • Haynesville/Bossier horizontal wells to date:
    • 1st well IP of 7.8 MMcfepd with a 2,000 foot lateral (previously announced as a December completion)
    • 2nd well IP of 7.6 MMcfepd with a 3,100 foot lateral that was positioned in the A&B sub-layers of the Haynesville. These guys did a lot of work with vertical wells to understand the geology here prior to drilling these horizontals.
    • 3rd well IP of 8.7 MMcfepd with a 4,400 foot lateral positioned in the A sub-layer. You get the picture, longer laterals and better positioning = better well.
    • 4th through 7th wells still drilling, all being postioned in the A sub-layer. Results of these wells expected in April (first 3) and May for the last.
    • They plan to complete 6 wells in 1H09 (#2 through #7 outlined above),
    • and then 15 to 19 wells in 2H09 which will result in a bit of a hockey stick profile for the year with an end of year high exit rate.
• Nutshell: Story getting pretty simple, like GDP they had growing pains as they transitioned from a Cotton Valley program to a horizontal Haynesville/Bossier program which caused them to come in a little light on the 4Q volumes and will cause a little lighter 1Q before the Haynesville wells give them proper footing. Previous guidance was a bit higher for 2009 but not markedly so and it was based on a much lower assumed Haynesville per well IP than what we are seeing in these wells.