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The Fuss Over Treasuries
By: InVivo Analytics   Friday, March 13, 2009 2:14 PM

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There’s something in the air. The noise over the “safety” of U.S. Treasuries is growing again:

China’s Premier Wen ‘Worried’ on Safety of Treasuries
China, the U.S. government’s largest creditor, is “worried” about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances that the investment is safe, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing today. “I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”

. . .

“Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets,” Wen said after the annual meeting of the legislature. “To be honest, I am a little bit worried.”

. . .

China should seek to “fend off risks” as it diversifies its $1.95 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, Wen said. Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank, said in an interview on Feb. 10 that the nation should seek guarantees that its Treasury holdings won’t be eroded by “reckless policies.”

But wait, why does China own so many Treasuries? Many factors have contributed to this imbalance but perhaps this story is a sentiment indicator that we are at the cusp of a huge inflection point:

  • The bad news on US Trade
    What’s more, with the majority of the remaining structural deficit now lying with just China alone, the balancing act that is the Chinese-US trade relationship could see some very interesting new developments. For one — in light of Beijing’s growing concern over its US investments – Setser speculates whether we could see China buying more US imports instead of bonds.
  • China’s stimulus: Got a light?
    China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.

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3/13/2009 2:49:42 PM
by jay
US Brad Setser reports: “Foreign demand for U.S. corporate bonds and equities remains very weak. Foreigners aren’t therefore providing the flows needed to sustain the dollar (and the US current account deficit) by buying risky US assets. But that doesn’t matter so long as Americans are selling their foreign portfolio. Over the last three months of data (October to December) net sales have generated a flow of close to $100 billion dollars.” (see article) Conclusion: America is winning a zero-sum game. Via Stock Research Portal
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3/13/2009 10:21:25 PM
China concerned about Treasuries by Ron
China should be worried about their dangerous over investment in US Treasury obligations. Washington’s long-term choice is either repudiation or monetization. For monetization to be effective, the depreciation in the dollar would have to be substantial and this in turn would dramatically raise prices of imports for American consumers which would mean a tremendous drop in foreign imports. Debt monetization would cause more disruption to exporting nations than selective repudiation of Treasury debt.

Washington has bailed out the banks, Wall Street & their Washington special interests and much of the cost is added to the national debt to by paid by this and future generations while real estate and investments continue to fall.  Find out what a growing repudiate the debt movement could mean for treasury bonds, the dollar, gold and the stock market.

The Campaign to Cancel the Washington National Debt By 12/22/2013 Constitutional Amendment is starting now in the U.S. See:  http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=67594690498&ref=ts
Thanks, Ron Holland
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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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