In anticipation of the initial proxy statement and a regulatory update, it will be noted at this time that a great deal of press coverage has focused lately on high-profile entertainers offering their respective views on this proposed merger. Within the last two weeks, there appears to be a growing number of entertainers coming out in support of the merger, whereas initially publicity centered on opposition from both entertainers and politicians.

What is important to point out here is that entertainers are not the group that this transaction will ultimately impact from a consumer standpoint. While it is not unusual, or surprising, to see well-known performers offer their support/opposition to a transaction of this nature, that bottom line is that their opinions are essentially irrelevant from the perspective of the DOJ. Where the live performance venue and ticket markets are concerned, the DOJ will focus entirely on the merger's impact on the general public that pays for these services.

With this in mind, it must also be pointed out that those who stand to benefit the most from potential price increases due to the merger are, quite literally, the performers themselves, as much as the companies. Thus, analyzing each performers' perspective on this transaction is very much an act of futility.

Assessing how this merger will be reviewed by the current DOJ under existing antitrust guidelines must remain the primary focus. Over the last month, there has been no information from the new administration and/or Department of Justice indicating even a vague stance on this deal. On many levels, the WYE-PFE and SGP-MRK mergers have overshadowed this transaction for the time being -- but this is certain to change of the next few months.

To put it bluntly, the pharmaceutical mergers will very likely increase the chances of this deal failing due to the antitrust review. As large and fascinating as the drug deals are, both are not the type which can be blocked by the DOJ on antitrust grounds. At best, some conditions can, and probably will, be attached to both mergers, but neither will ultimately be challenged or significantly delayed.

On the other hand, this merger provides the new administration, via the DOJ, a very solid legal case for blocking on antitrust grounds. As discussed previously, this merger raises horizontal and vertical issues, the latter of which is an aspect that is likely to receive much greater scrutiny over the next several years. This deal offers the DOJ the opportunity to re-institute vertical merger enforcement, while at the same establishing a precedent under HSR for the near future. Assuming that the pharmaceutical mergers will not be challenged, this transaction therefore becomes highly vulnerable as it is the first and only current legally challengeable merger.