There seems to be widespread recognition among market technicians that we are at an important level of resistance.
Corey Rosenbloom notes the triple Fibonacci confluence on the S&P 500. I drew some Fibonaccis on the SPY chart, and the you can see a confluence here as well:
Looking at the same chart without Fibonaccis, we can see price sits just below the 50 day moving average, and also at the top of a long-term downward trending channel. We are also underneath the resistance of the sideways trading range formed from October to February.
So far, market participants show no sign of wanting to be sellers. Given my bearish orientation this week, the past few days haven't been stellar, but fortunately not overly painful. I have been stopped out of a few, but remain in most of the short positions I've added during the week, SYT, ANSS, CXW, AZO, GME, RNT, WRLD, DLTR, MET, ECLP, and CRMT. Each of these remains below my stop price. If we get another strong bullish move here, and break through this significant resistance, I am sure I'll need to re-evaluate.
Even if we drop back into the channel here, I am likely to be on the lookout for more bullish setups. There are a huge number of extended charts out there that will look great after low volume pullbacks. Given the recent action, there seems to be a good chance that SPY will work its way out of the channel shown above.
Here are some charts of the short positions:
- SYT
- ANSS
- CXW
- GME
- RNT
- WRLD
- DLTR
- MET
- ECLP
- CRMT